Message: 1
   Date: Thu, 22 Jan 2004 18:15:09 -0000
   From: "eh_traveler" <[email protected]>
Subject: Strategic Predictions for ‘Survivor: All-Stars�?

Strategic Predictions for `Survivor: All-Stars'
by Jeffrey D. Sadow -- 01/21/2004


Professor Sadow won't be using his statistical model to make
predictions this time around, but he does have some very specific
thoughts on what could happen based on strategy and what we know
about each player. Read on to see how he thinks it will all turn out,
and then remember it as the season goes on.


In the past two seasons, around this time before a new Survivor
series, I feed information into a statistical model to see if we can
predict who will do well in the game. However, I won't be trying to
model statistically predictions for Survivor: All-Stars. That's
because this cast already has a record that probably every other cast
member knows (with the possible exception of knowledge of Rupert).
Thus, given a sample unrepresentative relative to the previous seven
episodes featuring "virgins," this would be like trying to predict a
competition of apples using data about oranges.

But this does open up the possibility of using good, old-fashioned
qualitative methods to make predictions (maybe I shouldn't reveal
this for those who are nonplussed by my attempts to quantitatively
analyze the game, but my models have so far missed all the winners,
while I actually used intuition to predict Ethan to win S3.) Being a
social scientist, I dislike taking guesses with very little
information available; however, for this edition, we've got the past
records of all 18. So I'm ready to let it rip.

As always, I'll base my predictions on the theoretical backdrop of
strategy. This means that chance and stupid play may wreck my
conjectures when it actually happens, but I'm anticipating that
worldview ought to work out well with this bunch. Several of the
contestants made my Top 13 list for performance.

Therefore, here are the major factors I think will encompass the
strategy of the All-Stars:

Challenge ability will at first be rewarded, then punished: as long
as multiple tribes exist, those who can disproportionately help their
tribes win challenges will be advantaged, but as soon as just one
tribe remains and challenges become individual in nature, these
people will be disadvantaged
Hard work gets rewarded: those players who proved themselves to be
good workers for their tribe will be advantaged throughout
Players who have done very well, especially those known for
being "strategicians," will be severely disadvantaged: players not in
this category will feel threatened by and lack trust in these
individuals and will band together when possible to vote them out as
soon as possible, given the imperatives posited by the first two
points above.
Crossover fertilization will occur in later stages of the game; that
is, people who appeared on similar installments will gravitate
towards alliances with each other, since "it's better to go with the
devil you know than the devil you don't."
To be rewarded at first are Richard, Colby, Lex, Ethan, Rupert, and
Tom. They made reputations for one of great physical strength and
adequate mental agility, or of adequate strength and very sharp
mental abilities (of the females, Kathy comes closest to making this
group). However, those surviving into the final merge quickly will
become suspect.

That also means that the following players will be advantaged
throughout: Richard, Colby, Lex, Kathy, Ethan, Rupert, Tina, Tom, and
Susan. In their various series, they emerged as major providers,
hunters, gatherers, craftsmen, etc.

Finally, Richard, Lex, Jenna M., Kathy, Ethan, Rupert, Tina, and Rob
C. will have an especially hard time of winning because they became
recognized either by winning and/or being known as a great
strategician or, in the case of Rupert, it will be assumed by the
other 17 that since they saw little of S7 that he must have gone very
far and deserves to be feared (and one look at him will reinforce
that perception). As soon as they outlive any usefulness as workers,
especially into the individual challenge phase, they will wear huge
targets on their backs.

The three factors I placed in order of importance. That means
Richard, Colby, Lex, Ethan, and Rupert, and Tom are good bets to make
the final merge. If so, however, all but Colby and Tom will almost
certainly become evictees immediately thereafter. This ordering also
entails that Jenna M. and Rob C. are likely among the first set of
bootees, Kathy and Tina probably are out early as well because
the "threat" factor will trump the "worker" factor provided enough
works are around.

But we also must take into consideration the initial tribal
placements and consider the dynamics of that as well as the
likelihood of winning initial immunity challenges. Given that the
series should comport to the time frame of those past and the
logistics, it's logical to assume that there will be a merge down to
two tribes, no earlier than after the first week, then down to one.
Probably what we'll see is two tribes sending off one for two turns,
then a merge, then one tribe sending off one for four turns, with
a "traditional" merge at 10. Subsequent analysis assumes this.

So, at least for the first couple of challenges, there will be two
losers to toss out. The first challenge, if Mark Burnett follows
former, will be physical (only the one in S5 had elements of both
physical and mental, and early indications this also will be
physical). It's a tough call but I think the Saboga tribe has the
edge here, so Mogo Mogo and Chapera must send someone to the Losers'
Lodge.

For Mogo Mogo, the choice is obvious. Richard, Colby, and Lex will be
seen as valuable to wining challenges; indeed, they are likely to
ally fairly quickly, Richard and Lex because they realize Alpha male
competition among themselves will prove counterproductive at this
stage, and Colby, just as he did in S2, will need a solid partner and
may prove as susceptible to Richard's charms as he was to Tina's.
That leaves Jenna M. as the least useful, biggest threat; she's gone.

If possible, Chapera's choice is even more obvious �?Rob C. should
join his S5 counterpart out of the game. In contrast to Mogo Mogo,
this is the weakest tribe (which will be its strength later in the
game) and he stands out in terms of ability. So he's gone.

The next challenge probably will be mainly mental, and here Mogo Mogo
has the advantage. For Chapera, the tribe probably will want Rob M.'s
and Tom's abilities around awhile, and of the remaining females, Sue
will be seen as the biggest future threat. Off she goes.

Saboga would have to choose for the first time, and that choice
probably will be Tina. With Ethan and Rupert to carry the load and
others reluctant to lose them, Rudy will be seen as a vote that can
be carried so the most threatening female would have to go.

The dynamics get murkier here. It's hard to predict when it's not
known what the two new tribes will look like. Still, the next four
sent packing likely will be Shii Ann, Kathy, Rudy, and Rob. M. Rob
will be seen as too manipulative and untrustworthy, Kathy as too much
of a threat, and Shii Ann and Rudy as too much deadweight for a tribe
trying to win challenges.

Next comes a single tribe and crossover fertilizing will be realized,
for Ethan and Lex should know they are huge targets now and safety in
old, familiar numbers will be paramount. Lex will have to abandon
Richard and Colby, and Ethan will take Jenna L. and Jerri with him to
abandon Rupert, joining with Tom, Alicia, and Amber to form a grand
coalition. First Rupert goes because he is a challenge-winning
machine, then Colby becomes the first jury member since he's almost
as good as Rupert, and then Richard joins him. This enables primary
targets Lex and Ethan to survive.

But not for long. The four dwarves left, Jenna, Jerri, Alicia, and
Amber, will work for their destruction, selling out Tom as well. Down
to four, they may be able to risk sending off the heavy lifters at
this point. After this sequence, Alicia will be the first priority
off because she would be the biggest threat to win challenges, and
Jerri would be seen as too duplicitous and should become the last
juror.

So, I predict that Jenna and Amber head to the jury vote, and Amber
wins out of cross-fertilization help from Jerri and Alicia, and
the "Jenna M." factor �?guys like to vote for women who take it off
(as she did, sort of, for a national magazine). Notice the dynamics
that are revealed through this process �?little targets combine to
use their only real power, which happens to be the biggest power in
the game, their votes. With a bit of strategy, one of them, not a big
target, will win the game.

Such an outcome also would provide an answer to the musings of fellow
RNO columnist Jeffrey Clinard who wondered which way would this game
go, either tight, nearly unbreakable alliances duking it out until
one reigns supreme, or whether one or more players would try to act
as singletons strategically jumping around to make or break
alliances. The scenario sketched here suggests mostly the former,
with a couple of instances of blocs of individuals moving about along
the lines of the latter.

Jeffrey D. Sadow is an associate professor of political science at
Louisiana State University in Shreveport where he teaches, among
other things, classes in international politics, international
organizations, and diplomatic history. He has published in the area
of gaming simulations in international politics