MSN Home  |  My MSN  |  Hotmail
Sign in to Windows Live ID Web Search:   
go to MSNGroups 
Free Forum Hosting
 
Important Announcement Important Announcement
The MSN Groups service will close in February 2009. You can move your group to Multiply, MSN’s partner for online groups. Learn More
MSN Bridge ClubActively managed by MSN.[email protected] 
  
What's New
  
  Message Board  
  Play Online  
  Swan Download  
  Bridge Reference  
  Pictures  
  Links  
  Ingberman  
  Imp Strategy  
  Rev Drury  
  Hand Templates  
  Alert Chart  
  Bridge Basics  
  Members Art Work  
  
  
  Tools  
 
Bridge Basics : The law of restricted choice
Choose another message board
View All Messages
  Prev Message  Next Message       
Reply
Recommend  Message 3 of 7 in Discussion 
From: MSN NicknameIRDOZ  in response to Message 2Sent: 4/11/2003 6:23 AM
The rule of restricted choice works says this.
 
The play of a card which may have been selected as a choice of equal plays increases the chance that the player started with a holding in which their choice was restricted.
 
If a player holds a singleton Q or singleton J their choice is restricted.
 
If a player holds the doubleton QJ the cards are equal so they have an unrestricted choice about what to play.
 
Because the LHO played a card which may have been choice of equal plays then there is a higher chance that their choice was restricted - ie the chance is higher that they did hold a singleton queen or jack.
 
The simple rule of thumb is if you see LHO drop an honor in a suit holding like this (there are many similar ones) then the odds favor finessing RHO.
 
 
For the mathematically inclined here's the reason...
 
One player will hold QJ doubleton 6.78% of the time - so the chance that the LHO has QJ doubleton is 3.39% - and they will randomly play the Q or J from this holding. (They can play either - their choice is not 'restricted')
 
The probability that LHO had a singleton honor is 6.22%. Here the choice of card LHO can play is 'restricted'.
 
So the chance LHO had a singleton honor is 6.22% and a doubleton honor 3.39% (ie odds favor finessing rho by alomost 2:1)


Replies to This Message The number of members that recommended this message.    
     re: The law of restricted choice   Morgannn  4/12/2003 12:09 AM