Good post. I can't memorize large tables of probabilites. But I know some and can guess at rest. Here is how I would solve this at the table...... Let's see, no losers. 3 possibilities - QJ(x...) onside = 25% - This one I remember because it comes up so often.
- QJ-stiff offsides = Must be much less than 25%. Same 25%, but specifically no small cards
- H-stiff offsides. hmmm, 3-2 is about 68% so 4-1 must be about 25-30%. 3 small cards and 2 honors, so getting one of the honors is 40% of that or about 10-12%. (For the head math impaired, figure less than half. Less than half of 30% is less than 15%. Since that is not close to 25%, you don't need much figuring.)
Winner = play for QJ(x...) onside |
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