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From George Ure of Urban Survival & Robin Landry

Special Update

Landry: Bounce @8,500, Dow to 5,800 Possible

Say, not to ruin the day, but I forgot to get the latest chart from my friend Robin Landry up for you...kinda hard to see, but you'll get the idea...

Robin's expectations are outlined this way:

"The Chart above is a long term chart that shows that my target for 7400 may be too high. If we get a maximum retracement of 68% then the 5800 range is quite possible. I am confident that one of the targets will be met. The time frame is the most difficult to determine. As always there will be sharp counter trend rallies along the way but keep your eye on the final larger degree target which is much lower than we are today. I have said for several years the idea of buy and hold will cause the greatest pain and loss of confidence in the advisement business that this industry has ever seen once we enter the larger degree correction corresponding to the 1929-1934 decline. We are at that timeframe and many people who rely on their saving in the markets to retire will not be able to retire due to the lack of discipline in the training of advisors toward capital preservation. I believe the next two or three years will prove me right. I hope I am wrong but doubt it. God help us all. As always questions and comments are welcome." [email protected]

Talking a bit this morning, Landry says the web bot project's October 7th date was pretty close. "You see, the thing that happen was that we flipped over from the glass being half full to the glass being half empty...and today it's maybe 3/4's empty, but we have a long way to go..."

Indeed we do -especially if his 5,800 Dow low is anything near right.

Bounce Thursday: A Larger Context

The whole economic world began to change this week - and it started on Tuesday. Today, although the markets will bounce, I think using Jim Cramer's '20% downside possible' benchmark, we will see a pause and even possibly a decent bounce. But is the crisis over? Uh...no.

"Bond Dude II" sent me this note about LIBOR:

"07:03 10/09 LIBOR/OIS: 3-month LIBOR/OIS sterling spreads widened again Thursday to a record level of well over 200 basis points, but the move wider was less pronounced than in other currencies. The sterling LIBOR/OIS widening may have been curbed by the UK authorities' three pronged bank support plan unveiled Wednesday. Continued concerns over year end funding have been weighing on spreads, which remain prohibitively wide despite the efforts of the authorities to tackle the problems in the interbank market. "

Remember: Higher LIBOR number means tighten bank lending - this is bad and sucks as we'll be experiencing when major companies start missing payroll. Already one of the world's largest chemical companies, I'm hearing, has frozen all capex projects. Not good...this is how things start to steamroll down hill.

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The White House is considering more 'never-before-tried-that' kind of moves such as taking a direct ownership interest in banks. Being positioned in headlines as the "New World Order: Global co-operation, nationalization and state intervention - all in one ay" this period will go into the history books as the day the 'One World Order' made a huge leap forward.

Ben Bernanke, long a student of the Great Depression, is gambling the whole world essentially, that the right combination of buying friends on Wall Street ($850-billion worth), the direct loans to automakers, buying corporate paper at the Fed window and all the rest - it's going to be a hefty tab, but one that would avoid - if successful - the pain of an AmRev2, that continue to be evidence in predictive linguistic modelspace for next summer.

Today - and maybe only for a couple of days - the US markets seem likely to rise in at least the early going, and things so far look to be slightly on the mend (slowed hemorrhaging is maybe a more honest descriptor) in Euroland. Except for the Spanish and Swiss markets (when I checked) we were showing all greens. Not a rally, but a long awaited bounce, for sure.

And I do mean slightly. Iceland's (small) economy continues to teeter on collapse, and any large counterparty default in a variety of credit markets could still easily bring down the global House of Cards.

The usual 'happy talk' about the future is being floated abouit, but to this student of the Great Depression, it's almost as though we've skipped through the Big Crash and have jumped right to the "Good Times Are Just Head' jingoism, hoping the social contract will be immediately repaired and forgotten about. ECB president Jean-Clause Trichet is working on a 'regime change' for Europe's Central Bank; no doubt with a big "socialist but we need a little working/sharing here" component.

T'ain't likely to be so easy.

For one thing, major parties globally need to send their PR departments off for a week of retreat so they can learn to work together a little more closely on matching their plot lines. Just as a 'fer instance' I can't help but be confused when I read in US media that "Paulson throws cold water on idea of umbrella G-7 crisis plan" while within seconds a Forbes headline suggests that "G7 meeting to focus on market turmoil as Global Phenomena".

Being a simple-witted news follower, all I can get out of this curious juxtaposition is an image of all these high falutin economic powerhouses sitting around and talking about the problems without cobbling up an umbrella. Maybe they will just exchange phone numbers? Not sure how to read it.

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A large number of readers have come forward offering their views on how well the rickety time machine did in picking out this period from a year in advance. Some are openly skeptical that anything out of the ordinary happened. One suggested his 'dog could do that well'. I want to meet the dog...

The numbers are pretty clear that we just hit a huge bump in the road. The high last Friday in the Dow was 10,844 and change, while yesterday's low was a measly 9,042. There's a 16½ high to low range over 4-trading days.

October 8th of last year, the Dow peaked intraday at 14,134. If you happened to have a mutual fund that closely tracks the Dow, the year on year performance of your portfolio would be down 36% -- enough to put a few holes in almost anyone's dreams of a rich retirement filled with luxuries you didn't have time for while working.

Worse, if we get the Cramerian downside here, and stock were to drop another 20% from yesterday's intra-day lows, that would bring us to the 7,234 area, and that's close enough to losing half of a retirement plan (if it happened to track the Dow) that you might be a little disheartened when the nexct quarterly statement comes in.

Oh sure! You could argue that "There goes George, being an old sourpuss again..." and then throw in a caveat like "Look! He doesn't take dividends into account...damn pessimist!" To which I'd ask what's bigger? Fund management expenses or the dividend income, especially on so-called 'growth stocks'.

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http://www.urbansurvival.com/week.htm

Thanks! I believe the drop dead bottom is 8,000, but one never knows how this will play out going forward? Credit must get unfrozen soon!

Todays Special Update ...

From George Ure & Urban Survival / Robin Landry

http://www.urbansurvival.com/week.htm

Landry's Latest: Yes, 7,200 or 5800...

My friend Robin Landry is out with his latest update to his managed clients. Landry, you'll recall, is one of those rare stock brokers who got most of his managed accounts out of stocks and into cash about 4,000 points back 'up hill' from here. In fact, most of them had short positions to one degree, or another. So here's his latest outlook:

Today's (Monday's early action - G) action raises the probability that the rally seen late Friday till early Tuesday was all of wave 4 of 3 and we are headed to at least the 7200 area +- 200 pts to complete wave 3 down.

However, now that we are in an environment where no one trusts the government, the banks, or any other financial institution, much less the politicians, an extended decline to the 5800 area +- 200 points is likely.

Once that is done a rally to at least the high seen Tuesday morning is probable before another decline starts to form wave 4 which may be a more complex rally but I will cover that after the current wave three decline is complete.

The positive side of this market is those who are aware of the wave structure and able to act on it are making more money in a few weeks than most people are able to make in a lifetime. When oil bottoms somewhere between 50-70- dollars a barrel, I intend to put 50% of my money in select oil and gas stocks and forget about them for at least 5 yrs.

What a time to be alive if you are out of debt and sitting on cash.

The buy and hold mantra will cause so much misery and pain for people close to retirement that it will become the cuss words of the future.

I pray that those of you who receive these updates have heeded them to at least a small extent and thus not in much financial pain.

The good news is, it is not to late. Once this bottom is in, the rally that follows will be a swift wave B rally lasting about 5 months in which much money can be made.

Then the final decline to lows undreamed of will begin, and once again will be very profitable.

I will comment on levels as they become appropriate. Comments and questions are welcome and will be answered as time permits. Do not listen to the talking heads on TV. They will lead you to poverty.

Robin may be contacted at [email protected].

Should be interesting to see who is more right over the next few months, Landry or George Bush especially after "Bush says Americans' Concern over Financial Crisis Now Easing." My money is on Landry, of course...

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Speaking of personalities and trading, try on this headline: "So long suckers, Million hedge fund boss thanks 'idiot' traders and retires at 37."

Key quote from Andrew Lahde's reported farewell letter:

"The low-hanging fruit, ie idiots whose parents paid for prep school, Yale and then the Harvard MBA, was there for the taking," he wrote. "These people who were (often) truly not worthy of the education they received (or supposedly received) rose to the top of companies such as AIG, Bear Stearns and Lehman Brothers and all levels of our government," he said.

"All of this behaviour supporting the aristocracy only ended up making it easier for me to find people stupid enough to take the other side of my trades. God bless America."

At least someone is honest about being 'in it for the money.' Refreshing candor, eh?

From George Ure of Urban Survival & Robin Landry

Another Special Update

Crash In the Works?

Latest from Robin Landry is if we break this morning's low - might be a good strategy to assume the crash is underway right now; Here's his update...

The decline this am was, I believe, wave d in the triangle and now we are in the wave e rally, the target is between 8868 and 8944 before wave five down to my 5800 target for the DJIA begins. A break below the low this morning will mean the wave 5 decline has begun. As I have said many times before, the 5th wave is usually the crash wave ever since people became aware of the Elliott wave and when a new low is set they realize the wave patern is not an ABC but a fifth to new lows and the panic selling begins. I will update as conditions warrant and time permits. Do not believe the talking heads that are saying the low is in and try to catch a falling knife. The turmoil is worldwide and is just now spreading. I pray that I am wrong but each day the market seems to verify my count.

So....if we break the lows of earlier today in the next day or two of trading, might want to issue rum rations to all hands...

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http://www.urbansurvival.com/week.htm

You don't have to trader. They have proven to be effective for 20 years. It is all up to you & simply a different insight from "The Muppet Show" on CNBC & Bloomberg et al. I have been posting these updates from the beginning of the markets downturn & Mr. Landry has been correct in all aspects So Far as in the past.

Whatever You Do is Your Business. Landry is NOT a "Talking Head" & Never Has Been.

I Could show you Worse insight possibilities derived from the same website. Not from Robin Landry SO FAR though...

From George Ure Urban Survival

The second thing that got me to pondering the Dow becoming a lump of coal in the Christmas stocking this year was an email from a long time reader/correspondent who has been kind enough to send me items of interest for more than a decade. He's one of those really smart guys who used to follow the University of Colorado Longwaves Econ postings back when it was still around, so anyone who's got a 12-year attention span on economics may be assumed to be no fool:

"George,

It looks like the crash is on.

I have had calls from a couple of people today who follow astro cycles and apparently the full moon on Nov 13th has some VERY NASTY astro configurations. Its also a “supermoon�?which is on a new or full moon which occurs when the Moon is 90% or greater of its closest approach to Earth.

The 2 super moons coming up are November 13th and December 12th, and its my understanding (working with a limited knowledge base) that the extreme gravitational forces can cause all kinds of reactions, including earthquakes.

I know you have the 13th/14th as being really bad days, potentially, but wanted to mention this.

I also have a confidential internal technical analysis report from one of Wall Streets biggest. Believe me, I am NOT supposed to have this and it must be treated confidentially, but they say SPX 660 and there is an outside chance of 307. They are mostly using EW and Fibonacci relationships to come up with their targets.

Remember my letter which you published said 372-374.

Actually, I was trying to forget that, normally being an optimistic kinda guy. Still, if we were to get a 'one last pop of a rally - maybe based on some democorp chatter about saving Detroit and passing out free stimulus money, some cheap, currently way out of the money put options on an SPX down around 550 in January might be cheaper than a trip to the gambling boats over in Bossier City, Louisiana.

Bossier City gambling, near as I figure exist for only two reasons: Apparently some Texans don't have eTrade and AmeriTrade accounts, and secondly because some Texan's wives don't seem to enjoy sitting around watching quotes on multiple monitors as much as they enjoy champagne, dinner and a show. Go figure.

http://www.urbansurvival.com/week.htm

From George Ure & Robin Landry

#1:

The market action last week and into early this week was highly suspect as the rally seemed to me to have the 'flavor' of one of those pre-holiday rallies that can be found often around major national holidays like Memorial Day, the Fourth of July, and so on. It also on the charts looked like it was over & done with on Wednesday and the market dropped about 900-points in two days since. Although the futures were pointing higher early today, that was in anticipation of the employment numbers, which we'll get to in a minute. Keep your slippers on.

A quick call to Robin Landry confirmed what I was worried about: There are two counts, one of which would take us down to 5,800 and another that could take out 4,000 on the Dow by Christmas that have his attention:

"Landry: If this is the fifth wave down, then we should go down at a minimum to the intraday lows of the other day. And I think that was on 10/10 �?and that would mean about 7,882. That’s the minimum, but more likely would be a quick drop to 5,800 if this is the fifth to complete the first down.

My concern here is that the best count using my indicators suggests that this fifth wave down we’re in now is only completing the third wave down. With another fourth wave rally, up to about this same area (8,500-9,000 - GU) then another decline, to even lower levels than lower than the 5,800.

That count would put us at around 4,000 Dow level.

The bullish options �?very short term �?is that we are still in this wave 4 and today’s (Thursday's - G) decline is wave B with a rally for wave E in the next day or so.

Then the fifth wave decline starts (*I noted that the futures were rallying in advance of the unemployment numbers - so this might fit - G)

The most interesting question is whether this fourth wave is the fourth of the third wave and the fifth wave down will follow, or if this is of a larger degree. We do not know that yet…and anyone who makes big bets in here that a long term bottom is in is either much smarter than me, or has a direct pipeline to the Man Upstairs, because I see no confirming technical evidence yet that would indicate the first decline is over or even close to coming to an end.

This is the one time, I would sure like to be wrong because I don’t like what I’m seeing.

George: And that's the building possibility of the Dow 4,000 by Christmas count?

Landry: Yes, Exactly.

This by itself doesn't lead me to believe yet - nor does it lead Robin, to say with any certainty that Dow 4.000 by Christmas is 'baked-in' yet, but it sure put my commodity call option ideas to rest pretty quick, although because, like my friend the Mogambo Guru, I keep thinking about more gold and taking delivery of a mini contract is possible, although a bit rich for my tastes.

http://www.urbansurvival.com/week.htm

From George Ure & Robin Landry Urban Survival

http://www.urbansurvival.com/week.htm

In case you were passed out from the flu, the Dow closed under 8,000 and Robin Landry's outcomes (Dow 7,200 or worse, 5,800) are starting to look like pretty good expectations. Me? Ever the optimistic sort, I was looking for a bounce to the 9,500 level, but that scenario fades quickly below my key line-in-the-sand level of Dow 7,965.

Still, if you thought things were bad on the street before, if all the bears make the kind of dough they stand to with all those put options that expire Friday, I'd expect selling to accelerate next week because usually, options expirations work out so as to cause the maximum possible losses among the public (also called the 'weak hands') while pocketing as many house payments and bonus checks as possible for the market professions ('strong hands'). This could be one of those rare situations where everyone gets their hands slapped.

Oh joy! The market is going on layaway!

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RAZFandEverythingElse	[email protected]