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| | | From: vodka1 (Original Message) | Sent: 1/16/2009 11:07 PM |
No amount of cash has yet been able to make up for the toxic loans on the books. Therein lies the problem. Meanwhile, the main part of the banking system is saved, and we should let the weak sisters disappear, including the auto industry. It's time not for more bailouts, but for some of these companies that are failures to restructure under our bankruptcy laws. Also, a lot of decent companies have probably seen their lows. It's not as if the whole world is going to go under, only a lot of the bad ones. This recession is serious because the government took it upon itself to spend us out of a lot of prior recessions, thus avoiding the efficiency of failure. Learn to embrace the failure. It is your friend and leads to rewarding of the efficient. That's how free markets work. They don't revolve around government spending or bailouts. At this point, the more government spends and creates debt for future generations, the longer will be the recession, and the more serious it will become. We NEED velocity to money and we don't have it because the government policies of encouraging bad debt have consequences, and one of those consequences is fear. Anyone with a buck wants to hold it, not spend it. If the Obama government continues with bailouts, the government can destroy the treasury market. |
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hey, vodka. Happy New Year. |
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| | | From: Kutz | Sent: 1/16/2009 11:40 PM |
He Vodka-nice to hear from you! Kutz  |
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My husband and I have looked into more bonds, government bonds as well as a couple of privat RIETS and decided not to invest. We have done well with bonds since 1999 but are not willing to re-invest in that area. I continue to play with stocks, in a small way, which we expect will begin to expand after the first quarter - maybe.... |
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| | | From: vodka1 | Sent: 1/17/2009 8:40 AM |
Hi guys, Happy New Year. Been, I never thought I would recommend that people avoid government bonds and treasuries, but I think further bailout spending and other fiscal policies will have serious consequences with regards to watering down government treasuries and bonds. They may look worse, short term, but I think I'd rather hold good stocks for the long haul. I also have a lot in gold, silver, and short term cash only in government money market funds. ONLY the short term cash waiting for a home. I'm worried about everything - even gold - at present. Even gold isn't acting "right" anymore. Consider Hamas and Israel in Gaza, Iran closer to nukes, etc. One would expect gold to be soaring, but it has not been doing so, as bullion AND mining stocks are off their highs. I still think the metals will rise again though, because scared people are not going to spend, so the money has to go somewhere, and I don't think they will park it in stocks because they are afraid. Stocks are the home of the brave or foolish at present.  I am not afraid to buy some good, beaten down stocks at these levels, but I want P/Es below their growth rates from here on out. |
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| | | From: Kutz | Sent: 1/17/2009 5:54 PM |
I agree Vodka that nothing in the commodity realm is really acting as it should given all that is going on. I think its on purpose! Kutz  |
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