Just to add,  I picked a target of $20-22.00 (when this was above $36.00) in an earlier post down the road because I have always thought that analyst 2012 predictions for Tysabri sales were pumped up and the value of the company is currently HIGH based on the actual 2008 Tysabri sales versus predicitions-lots of wiggle room and uncertainity!.

 

In this situation I took the high of $36.00, subtracted $10.00 for the new risk of more PML coming out in the future that alters the seen 1-3 to 5000 risk of PML and what I consider to be bloated sales calculations.  Then I factor another $4.00-6.00 on Phase 3 Alzheimer rsults actually improving/reducing the results seen in the already reported Phase 2 trials.  This is not coming out for a while!

 

I think that $20.00-22.00 is reasonably safe over time and their sale of their speciality unit and or a buyout possibilities at this lower PPS are wildcards that can propel this higher quicker!

 

As Trader says, more PML cases surfacing could whack this again.  Its a chance you take in drug plays!

 

What I like here is the potential upward movement versus no FDA drug decisions far into the future unless more PML surfaces!

 

JMO

 

Kutz