AMAG:  Picked up some shares at $30.75 this morning-spent about 6 hours checking this out last night.  Used CEPH money and profits to cover the cost.

 

Chart looks pretty compelling to me. Especially after where it was earlier in the year.  In October the FDA flagged a study site issue and a manufacturing issue and the ticker tanked, then came back when it was realized the issues were minor, acted on, and then the FDA gave a Class 1 re-review-the quicker one!  This is often a real good indicator that it will be approved.  The best buy-in was October, but this could make $8.00-20.00/share within a month or so if approved? 

 

Tough general market environment to go after drug plays though-it tends to mute them some. 

 

Its not a giant drug (maybe 300-400 million after 2/3 years)   The FDA rules on a drug they have and it relates to AMGN two big sellers-helps with iron in blood for patients having their blood filtered due to renal insufficiency by 12/29/08.  This would be a prime buyout target for AMGN, if it gets approved (god knows AMGN needs to expand their portfolio).  I give it a 80-85% chance of approval this time.

 

The efficacy data is good and the safety data is really good.  It reminds me of the BMRN FDA approval of Kuvan.  They have their manufacturing facility ready, made their first batch of commercial drug,  and have already hired a sales staff to hit the ground running.  I would not try to play this long term, but their are potential trades to be made here in the next 90 days (pre-decision/post-decision)!

 

Interesting science!  I'm in-may buy a little more if that fat guy Franky posted pulls it down more before the decision.

 

Bio is alrways risky.  If you bite, get any refunds from Greedy Scott----LOL!

 

Kutz