Southern History and Topics

"Star Wars in 20 years? It's not unthinkable." By Anthony Paul is at http://straitstimes.asia1.com.sg/commentary/story/0,4386,256167,00.html .This article has been archived. I found it posted on another website.
The Straits Times Interactive
JUNE 14, 2004
Star Wars in 20 years? It's not unthinkable

By Anthony Paul

AHEAD IN ASIA

A CONVERSATION over cocktails in Singapore last weekend had drifted
from Iraq to the future of warfare - specifically when we might see
deployment of weapons fired from outer space.

Suddenly, as if on cue, a pianist beyond the circle of guests began
tinkling a Sinatra tune: Fly me to the moon, and let me sing among the
stars/ Let me see what spring is like on Jupiter and Mars...

We laughed. But though the tune was appropriate, the laughter really
wasn't. War, later this century, will be far from funny.

This has certainly been the message delivered at two conferences on
security and military affairs held here over the past few months. The
purpose of both gatherings: to think about the unthinkable.

In February, Singapore's Institute of Defence and Strategic Studies
organised one on The Revolution In Military Affairs For Small States.
Last weekend, London's International Institute for Strategic Studies
(IISS) held the third of its Shangri-La Dialogues in Singapore.
Military and security authorities, including some defence ministers,
from 21 nations attended.

Both conferences added to current global debates about the so-called
Revolution In Military Affairs (RMA) - a term for widespread changes
resulting from the integration of emerging technologies into military
operations.

SOME PROPOSALS WERE SO ORIGINAL AND UNUSUALLY DEVASTATING THAT THEY
SEEMED BORROWED FROM SCI-FI HORROR PLOTS. EXAMPLES:

# THE RE-ENGINEERED WARRIOR

PROFESSOR CHRISTOPHER COKER OF THE LONDON SCHOOL OF ECONOMICS POINTED
OUT THAT AS THE HUMAN SPECIES PROGRESSES, THE GENE POOL FOR VIOLENCE
OF AN ORGANISED NATURE BECOMES SMALLER. PUT ANOTHER WAY: ADVANCED
NATIONS WILL FIND IT INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO PRODUCE PERSONS SUITED
TO MILITARY SERVICE, BECAUSE (AS THE CONFERENCE SUMMARY PUTS IT) 'THE
STRATEGY FOR KILLING FOR A PURPOSE BECOMES LESS ATTRACTIVE'.

ONE ANSWER, PUT FORWARD BY SOME BIOTECHNOLOGISTS: 'RE-ENGINEER,
RECONFIGURE AND RE-PROGRAMME THE WARRIOR'. GENE MANIPULATION AND/OR
SYNTHETIC DRUGS MIGHT BE ABLE TO REDUCE FEAR AND ALSO REDUCE (AND EVEN
ELIMINATE) CONSCIENCE. SAYS THE CONFERENCE SUMMARY: 'IT WOULD THEN BE
POSSIBLE TO CREATE 'NATURAL BORN KILLERS' WHO KILL UNDER ORDERS
WITHOUT REMORSE OR GUILT.'

DR MICHAEL EVANS OF AUSTRALIA'S LAND WARFARE STUDIES CENTRE
SUMMARISED: 'MILITARY PROFESSIONALS HAVE NOT COME TO GRIPS WITH THE
PHENOMENON OF THE MAD MAX WARRIOR, WHO MIXES BARBARISM WITH THE TOOLS
OF MODERNITY.'

# The disappearing combat pilot

PROF Coker also told the conference about a McDonnell-Douglas project
where distant controllers might 'switch off' an aircraft's pilot 'if
need be', or enhance his performance. But he warned of ethical
problems that arise when weapons systems 'can not only acquire targets
independently but also kill independently on the basis of their
judgment'. Crude forms of such systems are only 10 to 15 years away.

Last week's IISS conference resumed the RMA discussion. Mr Alexander
Nicoll, assistant director at IISS, reported on an experts'
closed-session discussion of new technologies and Asia-Pacific
security - 'a striking mix of optimism and caution about the effects
that new technologies could bring'. Some highlights:

# The mobile phone and Internet revolutions

WE NEED not go far to find out how emerging technologies can affect
security and military evolution. One example: Until recently, airline
crew had been instructed to act passively when hijackers took over an
aircraft.

But 'decades of doctrine' changed on Sept 11, 2001, 'when one
individual passenger used his cellphone to get information about the
other hijackings and, along with other brave people, then decided to
prevent Al-Qaeda from hitting one of its targets'. And in Afghanistan,
phones had been used to call in precision strikes from circling B-52
bombers.

# Electronic detection of abnormal patterns

A BREAK in routine movements - for example, the unscheduled
redirection of airliners towards New York or oil tankers towards
Singapore - may be identified electronically and acted upon. Mr Nicoll
summarised: Asia-Pacific countries' IT expertise should give the
region an advantage - 'Both Singapore and Australia have made big
strides and a number of other countries, including China, have
determined to embrace transformational technologies.'

# The terrorist danger

WHAT of the emerging threat from such enemies as Al-Qaeda?

MR NICOLL'S SUMMARY WARNED: 'THE MOBILE PHONE AND INTERNET WERE USED
EQUALLY WELL BY THE TERRORIST. Indeed, it was suggested that rather
than asymmetry (that is, defence forces' strength, terrorists'
relative weakness) there could be an alarming symmetry.'

# On the limits of technology

'IT WAS pointed out that winning hearts and minds was essential - you
cannot do it with robotic surveillance and stand-off weapons.'

But RMA may certainly give terrorists pause. During that space weapons
conversation, we discussed the United States Air Force (USAF)
Transformation Flight Plan, published last November. (The full
document may be found at www.af.mil )

It's highly controversial: Do we really need to militarise outer
space? But one proposed weapon might prove useful if, say, any future
Osama bin Laden were found lurking in an Afghan cave.

The USAF plan refers to the weapon as 'hypervelocity rod bundles'
(HRB). A pair of satellites - one for targeting, the other a weapons
platform - would orbit several hundred kilometres up.

At the flick of a switch, a bundle of tungsten rods each about 6m long
and 30cm in diameter would hurtle towards an earth target at 40,000kph
- meteor speed.

No need for an explosive warhead. Heated by re-entry friction, the
rods become thunderbolts of molten metal accurate to within a metre
and capable of devastating a bunker buried four storeys below earth's
surface.

The HRB already has a nickname redolent of biblical wrath: The Rods
From God. Alas, Osama has time to manoeuvre. The rods' introduction
date: 2020 at the earliest.
Copyright @ 2004 Singapore Press Holdings. All rights reserved.

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