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From: MSN NicknameTheOldGeek1Sent: 11/17/2005 10:48 PM
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©2005 Crisis Group - International Crisis Group

Early Warning Resources

Early warning is a critical part of conflict prevention and management, and a core element of Crisis Group's mission. Crisis Group analysts produce regular analytical reports containing practical recommendations targeted at key international decision-takers. Our goal is to warn governments, international organisations and the world community at large about impending deadly conflict and help them prevent or at least contain it �?and, if and when prevention fails, try to resolve the conflict. Crisis Group also publishes CrisisWatch, a 12-page monthly bulletin providing a succinct update on the state of play in all the most significant situations of conflict or potential conflict around the world.

The following is a list of websites that offer early warning information and conflict trend analyses:

Early warning - Conflict

CrisisWatch Database - provides succinct month-by-month updates on the state of play in all the most significant situations of conflict or potential conflict around the world. The database contains the entries from the current and all past editions of CrisisWatch (beginning 1 September 2003).

FAST Early Warning System, Swisspeace - FAST enhances political decision makers' ability to identify critical developments in order to formulate coherent political strategies to either prevent or limit violent conflict, or recognise chances for peace building.

Conflict Early Warning and Response Mechanism (CEWARN), Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) - provides early warning information on cross-border pastoral conflicts currently in the IGAD region, monitoring violent incidents, social impacts, small arms proliferation and environmental pressures.


Early warning - Humanitarian and natural disasters

UN Humanitarian Early Warning Service (HEWSweb) - a global one-stop shop for humanitarian early warnings and forecasts for natural hazards and socio-political developments.

Famine Early Warning System (USAID) -  provides early warning and food security information to prevent famine and ameliorate food insecurity.

Respond - A consortium of European and international organisations sharing geographical information to support humanitarian crises.

Centre of Excellence in Disaster Management and Humanitarian Affairs (DMHA) - provides through its Pacific Disaster Management Information Network (PDMIN) reports on the humanitarian and public health situations in the Asia-Pacific region (in particular its Asia-Pacific Daily Reports), Afghanistan and Iraq.


Global conflict trends

Human Security Report 2005, Human Security Centre (Canada) - presents a comprehensive and evidence-based portrait of global security, identifying and examining major trends in global political violance.

Carleton University Country Indicators for Foreign Policy - identifies and assembles statistical information conveying key features of the political, economic, social and cultural environments of countries around the world.

Center for International Development and Conflict Management (CIDCM), University of Maryland - its projects study the dynamics of conflict and conflict resolution, and offer a number of databese and datasets on conflict trends.  See in particular the Armed Conflict and Intervention Project (ACI).

Center for Systemic Peace (CSP) (associated with CDICM) - collects global information regarding seven inter-related aspects of contemporary, complex, international interventions and external influences. It project compiles an annual list of Major Episodes of Political Violence since 1946, as well as Global Conflict Trends;  it is also responsible for managing and updating the State Failure Problem Set list of Ethnic and Revolutionary Wars, Genocides and Politicides, and Failures of Governance.

Correlates of War, Pennsylvania State University - facilitate the collection, dissemination, and use of accurate and reliable quantitative data in international relations, including data sets on inter-, extra- and intra-state wars.

Facts on International Relations and Security Trends (FIRST), International Relations and Security Network (ISN) and Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) - collection of databases, including chronology of global conflicts, facts on armed conflicts and peacekeeping, arms production and trade, armed forces, conventional and nuclear weapons.

International Crisis Behaviour Datasets, Univeristy of Maryland and McGill University (February 2005) - Data on critical themes about crisis, conflict, and war from 1918 onwards, covering 440 crises, 32 protracted conflicts, and 970 crisis actors. Crises are examined from the perspective of polarity, geography, ethnicity, regime type, conflict setting, extent of violence, and third-party intervention.

MIT Cascon System for Analysing International Conflict - computerised history-based conflict analysis system, with information on 85 post-World War II conflicts.

Uppsala Conflict Data Program, Uppsala University - provides information and databases on armed conflicts, trends and peace agreements.

World Bank Governance Datasets - compilation of datasets measuring the governance performance of countries, localities and institutions.

Death Tolls for the Major Wars and Atrocities of the Twentieth Century - compilation of publicly available sources on total number of deaths in most major conflicts of the last century.


Daily news services related to early warning and conflict prevention

AlertNet - humanitarian aid and disaster news - a humanitarian news network with more than 300 contributing organisations, it keeps relief professionals and the wider public up-to-date on humanitarian crises around the globe. It offers a weekly email digest with major humanitarian news headlines.

Human Security News Service, Human Security Centre, University of British Columbia - daily compilation of human security-related news and research drawn from some 50 online media sources, wire services, and over 100 think tanks and university research centres from around the world.

ISN Security Watch, International Relations and Security Network - offers security related news stories, reference and background information, and analyses every weekday.

International Freedom of Expression Exchange (IFEX) - offers an Action Alert Network, where member organistions report free expression abuses around the world.


Risk analysis services

Medley Global Advisors (subscription only) - supplies policy intelligence -- monetary, fiscal and economic policy as well as on geopolitics -- to policy makers, investment banks, asset managers, and others.

Oxford Analytica (subscription only) - support business decisions with risk analysis and political/economic forecasts; offers daily briefings about global and region geopolitical, economic and social developments.

Control Risks Group (subscription only) - provides risk consultancy to its clients in order to help the latter succeed in complex or hostile business environments.

STRATFOR (subscription only) - private intelligence provider, offering geopolitical analysis of international political, economic and security issues throughout the world.

Eurasia Group (subscription only) - its Global Risk Watch and Reaction offer political-risk analysis and industry research for 65 countries around the world, based on in-country sources and in-house analysts.

Economist Intelligence Unit (subscription only) - offers analysis of political and economic trends in 200 countries as well as an annual forecasting guide.

Jane's Sentinel Security Assessments (subscription only) - seeks to address the underlying reasons for instability and conflict for every state and territory in the world.

World Markets Research Centre (WMRC) (subscription only) - assesses and forecasts political, economic, regulatory and business conditions in 186 countries.

PFC Energy's Petroleum Risk Manager (subscription only) - an online analytical tool designed to assess political, economic and petroleum sector risk in 50 oil-producing countries.

Virtual Research Associates, Inc. (subscription only) - the VRA GeoMonitor, a web-based software tool, offers political, economic and social analysis and early warning in the form of graphs, tables, and maps.