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| | From: Aprilborn (Original Message) | Sent: 10/26/2006 4:30 PM |
We have been warned, thanks to CNN, that an oil crisis is coming. And then CNN goes on to describe Tar Sands and ethanol. It is not just the environmental costs of Tar Sands that are so distressing. It is that natural gas equivalent to 1/3 of a barrel of oil is used to extract a single barrel of oil. And the energy drain doesn't stop there. The so-called "success" of ethanol in Brazil is based on: (1) Brazil per capita energy use is about 10% of the USA; (2) Sugar cane yields three crops per year in the tropics; (3) Ethanol in Brazil delivers 40% of the fuel content. Modern solar energy technology holds far greater promise because it is so much more efficient than photosynthesis. Coupled with advanced electronic transit, the solar option deserves more consideration than it has been given. | | Since first reading about the work of Colin Campbell and Jean Laherrere in April 2004, I have witnessed a great awakening of interest and understanding of the global Hubbert Peak. Now we are entering into a new phase; even the President of the United States has acknowledged that an oil problem exists. As energy costs rise, we are seeing a remarkable resurgence of new energy solutions. Old ideas are being dug up from the trash heap of history and enthusiasts are promoting perpetual motion machines, cold fusion, nuclear power, tar sands, "zero-point" energy and ethanol. Clean This and Smart That, Sustainable Solutions and Carbon-Neutral Technologies. Billionaires and mad scientists alike are seeking their way in uncharted waters, sometimes protected - at least until they plow our future into the ground - from the Second Law of Thermodyamics by government subsidies. In this confusing arena, it is hard to separate the wheat from the chaff. In the USA, a self-appointed "national" commission with a big budget cites a fraudulent study to advance their hidden agenda, and well-meaning policy wonks (who know how to do library research but didn't do so well in high school algebra) gobble it up as if it were gospel. We could stand by and watch from the sidelines if we had plenty of time and resources to rearrange things before the big crunch hits - say when global oil supply declines by 10-20% and everybody starts freaking out. Unfortunately, a temporary "transitional" solution could be more damaging than doing nothing. We would adjust to alternative fuels - tar sands, coal-to-liquids, ethanol, who knows what - and then these sources would run dry too. Then we would be completely in over our heads, even deeper than we are now, because we would have exhausted all the easy fossil fuels as well as the marginal sources (with more associated greenhouse gas emissions than conventional fossil fuels) without having built a viable, sustainable solution. This we cannot afford to do. We have to get it right. And there is no time to waste. How do we go forward? Answers must come from careful analysis of energy alternatives based on scientific fundamentals, not expedient economic metrics. It is tempting but altogether too dangerous to base societal-level energy investments on economic models shaped by the policies which are causing the status quo to fail in the first place. Many factors are critical to success, keeping the decision matrix full of complexities. I want to highlight just two key issues for the moment, and refer you to a matrix if you want to investigate options in greater depth. These two key issues are scalability and net energy. Due to the visibility of the US presidency, two proposed responses to peak oil are receiving a great deal of attention - hydrogen and ethanol. The "hydrogen economy" is also a favorite theme in Europe. However, though it is represented as a potential energy solution, hydrogen doesn't even qualify as an energy source - it must be created at considerable thermodynamic penalty from natural gas, electricity, or other sources. Ethanol - from corn, sugar cane or cellulose - requires prodigious amounts of fossil fuel for processing and cannot be brought to scale without destroying our planet's remaining forests, cultivated lands and aquifers. We can address the scalability of unconventional fossil fuel options, nuclear power, or renewable energy solutions by considering the ultimate recoverable amounts of fuels (including uranium) versus the staggering amount of sunlight that is imparted to the earth on a continuous basis. For example, all the conventional oil that has ever been consumed is equivalent to the energy of the sunlight intersecting our earth's surface (178,000 TeraWatts) for 12 hours. Turning then to the various forms of solar energy, in comparison to the average 13 TeraWatts (TW) of power actively produced by human ingenuity, it has been determined that, on land, the theoretical limit of photosynthesis is 7-10 TW, wind energy is 2-4 TW on land (more over water), hydroelectric is 0.7 TW and direct solar is at least 60 TW, making direct sunlight the most scalable source - if humanity can perfect the instruments at sufficiently large scale to convert sunlight into useful thermal, mechanical and electric energy. Net energy can be likened to interest on a loan. Higher interest rates mean better returns; if your bank's interest rate is negative, your bank deposits shrink. Net energy returns of 100:1 in the early days of the oil bonanza made societal transformation possible. But now energy return on energy invested for new oil discoveries is typically 5:1 and declining, and because of poor uranium ore quality, the return for nuclear energy is of the same order, even before consideration of long term consequences. So, regardless of price and supply volatility, it makes sense to find alternatives which have a higher net energy yield. Such alternatives exist: at 50:1 or more, wind energy can deliver yields at the same order of magnitude as the oil fields of old. At 40:1, the latest thin-film solar cells can run circles around new oil in terms of net energy yield. If we squander our remaining fossil energy reserves, either in profligate consumption or into solutions with poor energy yields, we risk global economic collapse. It is essential that we invest the energy in our finite fossil fuel reserves into solutions which can lift us out of the depletion cycle onto a stable, sustainable platform. [Ed.] More ... | | |
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PTT/World Petroleum Life Cycle Nation Peak 2040 vs Remain RR,N/ Year Peak 1997 2040 1997 2040 EUR Pk Yr Gb RR,42N 1 Canada 2008 1.07 0.93 0.41 23.6 60.4 64.2 -62% 40.6 3.5% 2 Mexico 2001 1.32 1.24 0.11 26.4 56.1 56.6 -92% 30.2 2.6% 3 USA 1970 4.12 3.01 0.42 200.4 267.0 271.2 -90% 70.8 6.1% 4 Argentina 2001 0.33 0.31 0.05 7.0 14.6 14.8 -85% 7.8 0.7% 5 Brazil 2007 0.39 0.31 0.14 4.6 17.0 18.2 -64% 13.6 1.2% 6 Colombia 2009 0.29 0.24 0.11 4.4 14.6 15.5 -62% 11.1 1.0% 7 Ecuador 2002 0.15 0.14 0.05 2.5 6.7 6.9 -67% 4.4 0.4% 8 Peru 1982 0.07 0.04 0.02 2.1 3.4 3.5 -71% 1.4 0.1% 9 Trinidad 1977 0.08 0.05 0.02 3.0 4.5 4.5 -75% 1.5 0.1% 10 Venezuela* 2005 1.47 1.23 0.79 50.6 106.3 115.1 -46% 64.5 5.6% 11 Denmark 2002 0.10 0.08 0.02 0.7 3.1 3.2 -80% 2.5 0.2% 12 Italy 2003 0.05 0.04 0.01 0.7 1.9 2.0 -80% 1.3 0.1% 13 Norway 2000 1.27 1.23 0.18 10.4 41.2 42.4 -86% 32.0 2.8% 14 Romania 1976 0.11 0.05 0.01 5.1 6.3 6.3 -91% 1.2 0.1% 15 UK 1995 1.01 0.98 0.23 15.1 42.8 44.2 -77% 28.4 2.4% 16 FSU 1987 4.62 2.70 1.40 133.4 248.1 264.6 -70% 131.2 11.3% 17 Iran* 1974 2.21 1.36 0.85 47.8 116.9 129.6 -62% 81.8 7.1% 18 Iraq* 2010 1.95 0.44 1.08 23.9 95.5 109.0 -45% 85.1 7.3% 19 Kuwait* 2018 1.71 0.76 0.95 29.9 91.9 103.5 -44% 73.6 6.3% 20 Oman 2002 0.36 0.33 0.07 5.2 14.5 14.7 -81% 9.5 0.8% 21 Qatar* 2009 0.38 0.25 0.07 5.7 17.1 17.4 -82% 11.7 1.0% 22 Saudi Arabia* 2011 3.92 3.42 2.04 83.8 232.0 273.2 -48% 189.4 16.3% 23 Syria 1995 0.22 0.21 0.04 2.7 8.2 8.2 -82% 5.5 0.5% 24 UAE* 2017 1.77 0.99 0.62 18.8 82.2 85.4 -65% 66.6 5.7% 25 Yemen 2004 0.17 0.14 0.05 0.9 6.0 6.1 -71% 5.2 0.4% 26 Algeria* 2002 0.58 0.53 0.10 14.0 28.1 28.5 -83% 14.5 1.3% 27 Angola 2003 0.30 0.27 0.05 3.0 10.5 10.6 -83% 7.6 0.7% 28 Cameroon 1985 0.07 0.05 0.01 0.9 2.0 2.0 -86% 1.1 0.1% 29 Congo 2003 0.11 0.09 0.01 1.0 3.6 3.6 -91% 2.6 0.2% 30 Egypt 1993 0.35 0.32 0.06 7.5 15.4 15.5 -83% 8.0 0.7% 31 Gabon 2000 0.14 0.14 0.03 2.3 5.5 5.6 -79% 3.3 0.3% 32 Libya* 1970 1.21 0.54 0.27 20.3 46.6 48.2 -78% 27.9 2.4% 33 Nigeria* 2004 0.96 0.83 0.30 18.4 47.0 48.8 -69% 30.4 2.6% 34 Tunisia 2008 0.04 0.03 0.02 1.1 2.7 2.7 -50% 1.6 0.1% 35 Australia 2002 0.28 0.25 0.06 5.0 12.2 12.4 -79% 7.4 0.6% 36 Brunei 1979 0.09 0.06 0.02 3.0 4.6 4.6 -78% 1.6 0.1% 37 China 2002 1.23 1.17 0.46 22.5 62.5 66.1 -63% 43.6 3.8% 38 India 2003 0.31 0.29 0.08 4.9 13.3 13.6 -74% 8.7 0.8% 39 Indonesia* 1977 0.62 0.57 0.18 18.8 38.1 38.1 -71% 20.0 1.7% 40 Malaysia 2001 0.27 0.27 0.06 3.8 10.9 11.0 -78% 7.2 0.6% 41 P N Guinea 1993 0.05 0.03 0.01 0.2 1.0 1.0 -80% 0.8 0.1% 42 Vietnam 2005 0.09 0.07 0.02 0.3 2.7 2.7 -78% 2.4 0.2% 42 Nations 2006 31.00 26.00 11.50 836.0 1865.0 1996.0 -63% 1160.0 100.0% WORLD 2006 31.60 26.50 11.70 853.0 1902.0 2036.0 -63% 1183.0 100.0% Oil Prod Gb/yr Cumulative Gb Table 1. Petroleum Production Summary: Nations and World. Columns, 1-to-r: Nation's number and name. Production peak years, some firmly established; others forecast, for 42 nations representing more than 98% of total world oil production. Peak production rate, 1997 rate, and forecast 2040 rate Cumulative production through 1997, forecast cumulative production through 2040, and expected ultimate recovery (EUR). Percent fall from peak to 2040. Remaining reserves. Far right column: The telling ratio of the remaining reserves of each nation to the remaining reserves of all 42 nations. Saudi Arabia alone controls 16.3% of the world's future oil supply. Notes: SI units are used in this study where 'G' means billion (10 9), and 'b' means barrels. '*' Designates OPEC member. '+' Indicates that relevant figures are increased by 2% top account for nations omitted from this list. http://dieoff.org/page133.htm |
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Industry deregulation of electric utilities in the U.S. has cut utility investment in energy saving programmes by 45 percent." [Reuters, 10/02/98] - METHANE MADNESS: A NATURAL GAS PRIMER, by Randy Udall & Steve Andrews, 04/13/2001
- Analysis of the IEO2001 Non-OPEC Supply Projections, by Roger D. Blanchard, Northern Kentucky University, 4/9/2001
- Emergy Accounting, April 2000, Howard T. Odum, Environmental Engineering Sciences,University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USA; [email protected]
- "Oceanic Hydrates: more questions than answers" by Jean Laherrere e-mail: [email protected] for Energy Exploration and Exploitation date May 3, 2000
- THE PEAK OF WORLD OIL PRODUCTION AND THE ROAD TO THE OLDUVAI GORGE, by Richard C. Duncan, Ph.D., Pardee Keynote Symposia, Geological Society of America, Summit 2000, Reno, Nevada, November 13, 2000.
- ENERGETIC LIMITS TO GROWTH, by Jay Hanson, ENERGY Magazine, Spring, 1999
- THE BEST-KEPT SECRET IN WASHINGTON, Brain Food -- Third Quarter, 1999
- ENERGY AND RESOURCE QUALITY, by Charles A.S. Hall, et al. (1992)
- Is USGS 2000 assessment reliable ?, by Jean Laherrere; e-mail: [email protected]; May 2, 2000; published on the cyberconference of the WEC on May 19, 2000
- NOT ALL FIRST WORLD ECONOMIES DEPEND ON POPULATION GROWTH: IMMIGRATION SINCE THE OIL SHOCK IN FRANCE AND EUROPE, By Sheila Newman; [email protected]
- Oceanic Hydrates: an elusive resource, by e-mail: [email protected]
- THE HUBBERT CURVE : ITS STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES; by J.H. Laherrère e-mail: [email protected]
- An Analysis of U.S. and World Oil Production Patterns Using Hubbert-Style Curves, by Albert A. Bartlett, Department of Physics, University of Colorado at Boulder, 80309-0390; [email protected]
- "Quels sont les problèmes quand on parle de réserves?", Jean Laherrère e-mail: [email protected] site: http://www.oilcrisis.com/laherrere ; Conférence AFTP du 31 Mars 1999 "Estimation des réserves et réduction de l'incertitude"; Pétrole et Techniques n°423 Nov./Dec. 1999 p37-47
- NEVER PUBLISHED ANYWHERE BEFORE! Oil Production Curves for all 42 Countries, by Richard Duncan.
- link to THE IMMINENT PEAK OF WORLD OIL PRODUCTION, by C.J. Campbell; A Presentation to a House of Commons All-Party Committee on July 7th 1999,
- THE WORLD PETROLEUM LIFE-CYCLE: Encircling the Production Peak #3, by Richard Duncan, Institute on Energy and Man, Seattle, WA, 1999.
- The Post-Petroleum Paradigm -- and Population, by Walter Youngquist; Population and Environment, March 1999
- The Olduvai Theory: Sliding Towards a Post-Industrial Stone Age, by Dr. R. C. Duncan, July 1996
- The End of Cheap Oil, by Colin J. Campbell and Jean H. Laherrère, Scientific American, 3/98
- THE COMING OIL CRISIS, by C. J. Campbell, 1997.
- Energy and Human Evolution, by David Price, 1995
- Complexity, Problem Solving, and Sustainable Societies, by Joseph A. Tainter, 1996
- Evolution of "development lag" and "development ratio", presented at "Oil reserve conference" in Paris November 11, 1997 International Energy Agency, Jean Laherrère, Associate consultant Petroconsultants, e-mail: [email protected] , site: http://www.hubbertpeak.com/laherrere.
- Distribution and evolution of "recovery factor", presented at "Oil reserves conference" in Paris November 11, 1997, by International Energy Agency, Jean Laherrère, Associate consultant Petroconsultants, e-mail: [email protected] , site: http://www.hubbertpeak.com/laherrere
- The Impact of Declining Major North Sea Oil Fields Upon Future North Sea Production, by Roger D. Blanchard, Northern Kentucky University.
- THE EVOLUTION OF THE WORLD'S HYDROCARBON RESERVES, by J.H. Laherrère e-mail: [email protected], lecture given in French on June 17, 1998 in Paris to SPE France
- Assessing Oil and Gas Future Production, and the end of Cheap Oil?, by J. H. Laherrere, e-mail: [email protected], site: http://www.oilcrisis.com/laherrere, for Canadian Society of Exploration Geophysicists in Calgary April 6, 1999
- Reserve Growth: Technological Progress, or Bad Reporting and Bad Arithmetic? by J. H. Laherrère; Geopolitics of Energy Issue 22 n°4, p7-16, April 1999
- What goes up must come down: when will it peak? by J. H. Laherrère Consultant Paris France: e-mail: [email protected] site: http://www.oilcrisis.com/laherrere
- Titanic Sinks, by Jay Hanson, June 24, 1998
- GeoDestinies, by Walter Youngquist PhD & Chair Emeritus, Department of Geology, University of Oregon, 1997.
- Renewable Energy: Economic and Environmental Issues, by David Pimentel, G. Rodrigues, T. Wane, R. Abrams, K. Goldberg, H. Staecker, E. Ma, L. Brueckner, L. Trovato, C. Chow, U. Govindarajulu, and S. Boerke. (Originally published in BioScience -- Vol. 44, No. 8, September 1994)
- eMergy Evaluation, by Howard T. Odum, May 27, 1998
- Scientists sense urgency to find future energy sources, Nando Times, October 28, 1998 3:08 p.m
- Here We Go Again: The Oil Surplus Won't Last as Long as we Might Wish, by James Srodes, Barrons, Oct 19, 1998
- link to Joy Ride to Global Collapse, by Jim Minter (1966)
- Life-Expectancy of Industrial Civilization, Robert L. Hickerson, August 2, 1997
- WHEN WILL THE JOY RIDE END? Community Office for Resource Efficiency
- a snip from ENERGY AND THE ECONOMICS OF SUSTAINABILITY by John Peet; Island Press, 1992.
- the prologue to BEYOND OIL: The Threat to Food and Fuel in the Coming Decades. Third Edition (1991) by John Gever, Robert Kaufman, David Skole, Charles Vorosmarty.
- Some fear the world may be running out of oil. September 5, 1998, Nando Times.
- SPENDING OUR GREAT INHERITANCE -- THEN WHAT? by Walter Youngquist. Geotimes, July 1998, pages 24-26.
- link Energy apocalypse looms as the world runs out of oil. Forget the Caspian bonanza! Peter Beaumont and John Hooper in Rome report that producers misled everybody, Sunday July 26, 1998, Observer (london)
- link June 15 issue of Forbes! CHEAP OIL: enjoy it while it lasts. p. 84 Franco Bernabe, chief executive of the Italian oil company ENI, sees a global oil production peak and 1970s-style oil shocks beginning between 2000 and 2005.
- A Peak Under the Covers, by Jay Hanson, 11/11/97.
- The Death of the Oil Economy, by Ted Trainer, Spring, 1997.
- Get Ready for Another Oil Shock, by L.F. Ivanhoe, February, 1997.
- Future world oil supplies: There is a finite limit. Ivanhoe on Hubbert (1995).
- Population and Energy, by Graham Zabel, August 2000
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