There was a report in the Portuguese press a few weeks ago saying that the PJ were going over the case file one last time to be certain they had not missed anything before handing it off to the public prosecutor's office for a decision on whether or not charges will be laid against the McCanns.

This decision will lie primarily with Jose Cunha Magalhaes e Meneses, the public prosecutor in Portimao, and Luis Bilro Verão, another experienced public prosecutor brought in last fall from Evora to work with Mr. Magalhaes e Meneses, supported, of course, by their respective staffs. The final call will not be up to Paulo Rebelo or anyone else from the PJ; that is the way it is with these things.

We do not know at this point just what evidence is in the investigative file, but there are a few things that can be said about the likely outcome:

(1) The McCanns could be charged with neglect for leaving Madeleine and the twins alone. It is also possible that Jane Tanner and Rob O'Brien could face similar charges, as could Matthew and Rachel Manpilly Oldfield. Charges against the Paynes would seem to be less likely, because according to press reports they had a working baby monitor which they used when they left their children alone to go out to dinner. Whilst it would not be satisfactory to many of us here as a way to monitor the health and safety of a small child left alone and otherwise out of sight and sound, it is not so different from a baby listening service; therefore, in my opinion, it is unlikely that the Paynes would be charged.

(2) If the PJ have evidence that Madeleine is dead (if, for example, forensic testing showed that the hairs found in the hire car came from a dead person, and testing of mitochondrial DNA from the same hairs established Madeleine as the likely donor), then the big question arises: How did her death occur? Was it purest accident, something that would have been very unlikely to have happened if she had been supervised, and therefore appropriate as the basis for a charge of neglect resulting in death? Was it what we would call manslaughter? Or was it murder, with all that would imply?

If Madeleine is dead, the reason for her death is crucial, as it could provide a motive for the cover-up of her death, improper disposition of her corpse, lying to the police, and possibly the Portuguese equivalent of perverting the course of justice or conspiracy against more than just the McCanns. There would also be the possibility of fraud charges in the UK arising out of the creation of the fund. But the prosecution cannot just theorise about it; whatever elements of the crime form the basis of charges must be proven.

This, I believe, is the central dilemma at this point. Without a confession, witness testimony, or Madeleine's body, it is going to be difficult to prove the manner of her death.

This is why some of us (I believe that Hawkeyes and others also agree with this) have been saying for some time that we believe that, if the PJ can prove that Madeleine is dead, the McCanns should be charged with negligence resulting in death. This is a lesser charge than either manslaughter or premeditated murder, but it does not appear to require proving the manner of Madeleine's death, only that she is dead, and that her death is the result of negligence on the part of her parents in leaving her alone and unsupervised. After all, one charged with such an offence could not very well say in one's defence, "No, you have got it wrong. She did not die as a result of being left alone; we, in fact, murdered her." Similarly, there would seem to be no percentage to make a defence argument to the effect of, "No, she did not die whilst alone on the night of 3 May; she had been dead since the preceding evening." If it is a difficult situation for the prosecution, it could also be the ultimate choice between a rock and a hard place for the defence.

The statute of limitations in this case is more than a decade away from expiring. One thing the PJ could always do is wait to see if Madeleine's body turns up. If she is buried on land, more than likely she will be found at some point; that often happens in missing-body cases. Some hiker in an out-of-the-way place will stumble across a shallow grave, someone's dog will bring home what appears to be a human bone, someone out searching the hills for a lost animal will stumble across a piece of clothing or some other trace of her, or unusually heavy winter rains will unearth her grave, and she will be found. Finding Madeleine's body at this point might or might not make it possible for forensic pathologists to determine the cause of her death. For example, if the hyoid bone in her throat is fractured, that would indicate strangulation. If her skull were fractured, however, it would be hard to determine whether that was the result of accident, manslaughter, or murder. Moreover, if her body were dumped at sea, then recovering it is much less likely.

I wanted to bring this up now, because when one starts thinking it through, it seems to me that it becomes much clearer why the prosecution is taking its time and what they are up against. I am far from in despair about the case, but this is no easy matter; it is a very difficult decision, and those of us who are praying people might do well to pray for Mr. Magalhaes e Meneses and Mr. Bilro Verão, that God will give them grace to decide aright. The lives of not only the McCanns, but the other tapas 7 and their extended families will be unalterably changed one way or the other by the decisions made in the next few weeks and months. There are 8 other very small children, for example, whose parents are involved in this to one degree or another, if only as witnesses.

Assuming that there is nothing shocking that we do not know about and the summarisation of the situation above is more or less correct, what do YOU think the prosecution should do? Wait and hope that Madeleine's body can be found or that there will be some other sort of break in the case? Lay charges now? If so, what do you think the charges should be?

As I have said in other posts, I am not writing this because I have the answers, but because I know I do not and am interested in what other posters think.