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| | From: Hayekian (Original Message) | Sent: 1/19/2008 2:23 AM |
I ran across this article today - if there is any forum where people will take the time to read the entire article, this is it. There is a wealth of information in it ... here's an example: "... The Federal Open Market Committee is an unwieldy and archaic body in the best of times; it includes seven Fed governors in Washington (at the moment there are only five) and the presidents of the Fed’s 12 regional banks, which are dispersed in cities like Richmond and Cleveland, in the country’s industrial centers circa 1913, when the Fed was founded. This hydralike form is a result of the country’s abiding fear of concentrated financial power. Congress twice set up central banks in the early years of the republic but let their charters lapse. Throughout the 19th century the country frequently experienced banking panics. After the Civil War, the United States adopted a gold standard, but without a central bank, the amount of money in circulation was fixed according to the available supply of gold �?a rigid structure that the economy was outgrowing. The demand for credit was variable. For instance, it was heavy in the fall when the crops came to market. In 1907, the U.S. suffered a brutal recession in which thousands of banks failed. The panic subsided only when J. P. Morgan Sr., then 70 and semiretired, personally rescued the stock exchange. Financiers realized that America needed a public lender of last resort: a central bank. Paul Warburg, the scion of a German-Jewish banking family, was frustrated by the primitive financial system of the United States, his adopted home, and he formed a tentative alliance with Nelson W. Aldrich, the powerful chairman of the Senate Finance Committee. In 1910, Aldrich, Warburg and a group of other bankers met in secret on Jekyll Island, off the coast of Georgia, to write a plan for a central bank. Reporters were told they were going duck hunting. The public was highly suspicious of financiers, especially East Coast financiers, and the Federal Reserve was consciously designed to allay their fears. The regional Fed banks were to be semiautonomous, and they were chartered with their own boards, whose members were drawn from the local communities and a majority of whom could not be bankers. Political authority was vested in Washington; the Fed’s capital, however, was contributed by private banks all over the country. ..." I understand the suspicions regarding "ownership" of the Fed - those paragraphs are as good a brief summary as I've seen. I hope the rest of you enjoy reading as much as I did. Ben Bernanke has a considerable challenge ahead - in my opinion, there could be no one better suited to the position he holds. We'll see how it all works out. |
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| | From: KAHN | Sent: 9/6/2008 6:28 PM |
PUMA: YOU WROTE: <<<national id, no thanks. no way.>>> I am astonished when people say they do not want a national ID. Why should Illegal aliens, potential terrorist enjoy complete anonymity, while citizens of the United States of America are required to be easily identified, by their drivers license, their tax returns, the property taxes, by their social security number, well you get the idea? A federally mandated ID using Bio-metrics for positive identification, (iris scan, fingerprints, DNA, photograph and voce scans), would eliminate every avenue for identity fraud, kidnapping, social security fraud, just to name a few. <<<as far as a cashless society goes. it will not prevent the most heinous crimes against society, it will only abet them. those who you say already manipulate us, will have free reign>>> Well for all practical proposes we are now and have been for a number of years a cashless society. Law abiding citizens have no qualms about using debit cards and credit cards. The only people who do not take advantage of the existing cashless monetary system are the criminal element. Drug dealers, bank robbers, fraud specialist, any crime committed for monetary gain can not exist without CASH. You can not have a drug cartel in Mexico or anywhere else without cash. <<<the world bank (u.s. branch = fed reserve) is the single most powerful (and most demented) crime syndicate on the face of this earth. whoever is in second place is not even in their ballpark.>>> The U.S. can buy the Federal Reserve Bank system at anytime for about $1 billion dollars, the value of their physical assets. But the beauty of a cashless monetary system is it puts the liquid assets of everyone in the U.S. in a federally operated bank, where every private bank account points to the liquid asset account in the Federal bank. So everyone can have as many Bank accounts as they want, but only one liquid asset account in the Federal Bank. <<<and all you want to do is hand them total control of your life?>>> They have as much control presently as they would under the system I am proposing. The only difference is the criminal element will also be under their control, not just you and me. KAHN |
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khan, they must put some awesome flavors into those blue pills to get you to swallow them with such relish. actually, i am becoming convinced that you are just another of those tiresome shills that cruise these boards to propagandize for the new uber reich. you continue to espouse the glories of aiding and abetting a super crime syndicate for the purposes of alleviating criminals. from society. the fact that you don't seem to even see rony in this, let alone total insanity, leaves me wondering just how insidious are the mind control efforts of these craven embeciles that you so heartily support. bank robbers are not a real problem to our society. they appear now and then, filch some essentially worthless paper and are generally caught and punished because we do have laws. who is the largest drug trafficker on the planet? that would be our "own"cia. pay attention son. this world is a lot more bizarre than it looks. here is another little irony for you, since we are on the subject. approximately 10-15 thousand american citizens die from the ingestion of "illegal" drugs in this country every year. this is not a good thing. however, when you understand that american pharmaceutical companies kill about 110,000 of us every year with "legal" drugs, then your argument against giving these interlocked corporate horses asses control over our lives begins to get a little dicey. by the way, in the entire history of man, marijuana, which has only been illegal for the past 70 years or so, has not killed a single human being. and yet this substance remains "illegal" and all who use it are considered by the great "powers that be" to be criminals. and your solution is to stop "criminals" by kissing super criminal ass. sorry khan, you are dismissed. go bother the folks over at some kool-aid partiot board. you are more likely to get agreement from those who believe in things like "my pary is good, your party is bad." |
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| | From: KAHN | Sent: 9/13/2008 4:42 PM |
PUMA: YOU WROTE: <<<khan, they must put some awesome flavors into those blue pills to get you to swallow them with such relish. actually, i am becoming convinced that you are just another of those tiresome shills that cruise these boards to propagandize for the new uber reich.>>> Tell me Puma why is it people of your caliber always resort to Ad Hominem attacks, instead of logic. I make a simple but true statement of fact. KAHN SEZ: <<< I am astonished when people say they do not want a national ID. Why should Illegal aliens, potential terrorist enjoy complete anonymity, while citizens of the United States of America are required to be easily identified, by their drivers license, their tax returns, the property taxes, by their social security number? Do you have a logical answer for this simple question Puma? Why not? The average person is for all practical purposes using a cashless monetary system now, only the criminal elements avoids this convenient system simple for the reason of anonymity. Do you deny this fact? Your fears are baseless and pointless, unless of course you are trying to hid something. KAHN |
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khan, "liberty" i am sure that you know the word and can even recite a passable definition if asked to do so. but that is as far as it goes. your diatribes have demonstrated quite clearly that you are nowhere close to internalizing the concept of liberty. furthermore, you have given up the process in favor of internalizing the concept of security. this is a piss-poor trade off. "your social security number will always remain confidential between yourself and the social security administration for the purpose of compiling your benefit data only" the above is a quote by fdr during his drive to installl social security into the framework of americn society. how long did that promise last? your fear of petty crime has paralized you into blindness of a far more dispicable and far more far reaching type of criminal. in spite of the blatant and abundant evidence to this, you turn a blind eye on the truth and continue to allow yourself to be cajoled into supporting the uber crimninal. and while that criminal plays on your fears to achieve more and more control over you, you continue to feed it power as it continues to promise you security. nowhrre during this process to you stop long enough to understand that "security" is and illusion and that the concept of security has only one purpose which is to keep your thought process working in fear based mode. Tell me Puma why is it people of your caliber always resort to Ad Hominem attacks, instead of logic. I make a simple but true statement of fact. there is nothing about my "attack" that is ad hominem, there is no misdirection, no equivocation, no processing of "truth" whatsoever. my "attack is not against your person, but against your aggressive stubborness and your studied avoidance. i have yet to see you make a statement that is either simple (as in straight forward) or has anything at all to do with truth or facts. you are blithering a socially conditioned party line and you are doing it strictly from petty fear. KAHN SEZ: <<< I am astonished when people say they do not want a national ID. unbelievable. Why should Illegal aliens, potential terrorist enjoy complete anonymity, while citizens of the United States of America are required to be easily identified, by their drivers license, their tax returns, the property taxes, by their social security number? as i have already stated, the true terrorists have taken the whitehouse, the bankiing system, education and the media. the above quote by fdr applies here. extrapolate. Do you have a logical answer for this simple question Puma? i do, and i have given it over and over, but it falls on deaf ears in your case. and in the case of all people of your caliber. i will actually define your caliber: go along to get along sheep who will willingly trade freedom for the illusion of security at the drop of a hat. would you care to define my calliber sir? basing your definition on any evidence that i have demonstated in these boards, without resorting to an ad hominem attack of your own? simplest answer, this boils down to a case of liberty versus "security". i choose the former hands down. |
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one more thing khan. you have choices even in your present condition you have choices. your most present tense dilema lies in whether or not to continue to function under the control of sociopaths, or to lift yourself up by your own boot straps and become enlightened to genuine, objective, cause and effect reality. from where you now stand, you have a long and arduous journey ahead of you should you choose enlightenment. i propose a test. here is a film, one who most of those of my calibre have seen many times over. the film is in five parts at this venue. i challenge you to watch all five parts. the choice is, of course, yours and yours alone. should you choose to watch it, even for the purposes of understanding those of "my calibre" who will continue to offer impediments to your way of thinking as long as you continue to espouse it. here is a chance to arm yourself with genuine arguments. i submit that while you watch this film, should you choose to do so. you will find yourself experiencing wave after wave of palpable denial. you will be tempted, and likely succumb to the temptation to stop watching the film. should you persist in watching the entire film, you will run the risk of being shaken to your foundation by the reality that it delivers. my guess is that you will not even attempt to watch this film because you are far too comfortable with your fear based paradigm. i sincerely hope that my guess is wrong. for a more astute answer to your question about national id, part five will answer it far more thoroughly than i am able to do here. if you watch nothing else, watch part five for this reason alone. i sincerely hope that you do watch the entire film and that it makes you begin to think. your fellow humans need you khan, and we need you awake. enjoy the film. |
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Ben Bernanke is now educating us - and his actions as the leader of the Federal Reserve System during this crisis have been superb - if the mathematical models developed in the last half century of monetary economic theory are correct. We won't know until this current crisis is past if Bernanke and the monetary economists are right about the quantity of money in the system and its velocity, and how the economy responds to injection of liquidity, as well as withdrawal of that liquidity when the time is right. We couldn't have a better Federal Reserve Chairman than Ben Bernanke right now - he's an academic expert on how the Federal Reserve System failed to back the banking system in 1929 and the 1930s (while trying to prop up the dollar to keep it constant with the price of gold). When people want to flee to gold, the demand for gold rises - hence, the price of gold would naturally rise. The only way to make dollars match that rise in the price of gold is to reduce the supply of dollars available - i.e. - make them scarce. Thus - if we were currently on the gold standard, the Federal Reserve would have had to shut down credit and take dollars out of the system to keep the dollar value equal to gold. We know what that did in the Great Depression - the dollar rose in value dramatically, deflation was double digit, and unemployment shot to 25% since businesses shut down due to lack of credit and currency flows. Bernanke understands this - so what is the Federal Reserve doing right now? It is creating massive amounts of dollars by lowering interest rates and issuing a record amount of cash at its discount windows ... Fed Loans to Banks Almost Double to $98 Billion This money creation would normally be inflationary - at this rate, possibly hyperinflationary - but the earliest signal on whether the value of the dollar is falling due to Federal Reserve actions would be the world currency markets. Yet - the value of the dollar is rising against the Euro: Oil prices are falling dramatically (i.e. - the dollar is becoming more valuable) - house prices are falling, other prices are falling. Yet - gold is still rising, so if the Fed was defending the dollar only against gold it would not be loaning money and all of the banks and other institutions would be rapidly failing as the money supply contracted. Economics is my hobby - particularly monetary economics. What we are seeing on the part of the Federal Reserve System is superb action, being taken in precisely the right direction. The amount of dollars being created daily by the Federal Reserve System under Bernanke's guidance is unprecedented. The trick for Bernanke is to know when he needs to reverse these actions - and he's going to have to reverse it quick when consumers and investors are ready to dive back in, because all of the money he's creating will have to be rapidly withdrawn from the system when the velocity of money accelerates in the system again. If Bernanke isn't quick enough on the contraction of the money supply, you will see an inflationary surge - signaled first by a drop in the value of the dollar on the currency exchange markets. He wouldn't have been able to do any of this without the ability to inject money into the economy, and withdraw it at the discretion of Federal Reserve operations. This is a beautiful example of a monetary feedback control system in operation, with actions being taken at an unprecedented level. If the mathematics of monetary theory (developed with the aid of statistics from the massive disturbance in 1929 through 1933 - in my profession, process control, we call that a "bump test") holds through this massive disturbance the Federal Reserve System ought to prevent these financial issues from hitting the real economy hard enough to cause a long depression. Any senior level economics majors in college right now ought to consider going to graduate school - the data being generated from this crisis will be a tremendous source of academic advancement in monetary theory for years. There are going to be tons of doctorates earned as a result of this. |
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| | From: codify | Sent: 10/13/2008 1:24 AM |
deletes mine. I get a little nuts when I find ourselves in this garbage. Hayekian..... It's expected the Fed will have to add some 2 trillion + in order to stave off disaster. Just how are they gonna reverse that? Or as you say contract it? The only way I see is if we are very productive, and able to grow our way into those big 2 trillion + pants. But I'm afraid those are big pants to fill. Not impossible I suppose. But? |
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Here is a greatly simplified explanation. The money supply does not equal the wealth of the nation. Total net worth of the United States (real net worth in resources, property, buildings, infrastructure, etc.) is at least $45 trillion. However, the M1 money supply is currently $1.7 trillion, and M2 is $7.8 trillion. Therefore - there isn't enough "current money" to balance with assets. Normally this isn't an issue as people don't expect to hold their net worth in their hands as "cash". However - since cash is what drives economic exchange it is very important for real time, current economic activity. There are some very good books on monetary theory if you want to think about alternatives to the Austrian view - a good place to start is Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz Amazon.com: A Monetary History of the United States, 1867-1960 ... but the bottom line is the value of money is related to both its quantity and its velocity (rate of movement) through an economy. Money's value drops as either the quantity or velocity rises - and it rises as either the quantity or velocity falls. When people start to hoard cash, velocity can drop rapidly - since their are few buyers of commodities, goods or services, (low demand), prices begin to fall. That is what is currently happening - on Friday, even gold and other precious metals dropped in price. Oil is dropping, farm commodities are dropping - everything is dropping - which means the value of the dollar is rising. This is good for those of us who hold cash - but it isn't so good for those who want to remain employed. Anyway, now for the simple explanation regarding what the Fed and Treasury are doing ... Normally, people would be loaning their money directly to private enterprises - either through savings accounts in banks, or through "money market funds" like Vanguard's Prime Money Market. This goes for other instruments, such as corporate bonds, etc. Now that people aren't sure those securities are safe, they are rapidly pulling their money out of private funds - even gold funds aren't considered secure right now. Where are they "fleeing" to for security? The United States Treasury - I would never have thought the Treasury would have been able to sell their securities, but it seems they have an almost unlimited market right now. So - dollars are fleeing the private sector, for the perceived "security" of the United States Treasury. What does Treasury do with their excess dollars? They "deposit" them with the Federal Reserve banks. These dollars then become the "monetary base" - and the Federal Reserve can create 10 dollars from every dollar the Treasury deposits due to the fractional reserve system. So - what has the Fed started doing? Since the people are afraid to loan their money out for even very secure purposes, the Federal Reserve System is now providing those loans. All of those private sector companies that are having to return dollars back to individual investors (who then send them to the Treasury) are now going direct to the Federal Reserve System to get those dollars back in order to maintain operations. Thus - dollars are "destroyed" when people pull them out of the private sector system and deposit them with Treasury - and Treasury issues Treasury securities - but then they are "recreated" by Treasury deposits with the Federal Reserve - who is then issuing loans to the private sector to maintain liquidity. Instead of investor to private sector demand, it is now investor to Treasury to Fed to private sector demand. In this way the money really hasn't disappeared from the system (or contracted due to loss of velocity, as happened from 1929 through 1933), the Treasury and Fed are functioning properly to back the financial system through their actions. Now - how does all that money being issued by the Fed get pulled back out of the economy? Well - the process reverses. People begin to gain confidence in the private sector again, they start lending directly to the private sector. In doing so they pull funds back from Treasury securities - which removes their deposits from the Federal Reserve Banks. Fortunately, the private sector reduces their cash demand on the Federal Reserve Banks as their demand is met directly by the investors, and the process reverses and unwinds itself. This is a simplified explanation of how it works, codify - and timing is everything, the system isn't perfect. This means you can expect mistakes and volatility - but over the next 6 months to a year we ought to see that Bernanke's actions will prevent massive bank failures as were seen from 1929 to 1933. This will do much to confirm the theories of monetary economics developed in the last 75 to 80 years - and it will provide a huge amount of data for economic graduate students for decades. Of course - if what the monetary theorists thought they learned from The Great Depression isn't right, and Bernanke is taking the wrong actions, then it won't work. I hope Bernanke and the monetary economists are right. We'll know in the coming months. |
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Excerpt: "... What the value of money actually is (i.e. what units of the standard will buy, in general) depends on 1) how much money there is, 2) how much money is held out of circulation, and 3) how many exchanges circulating money is used to cover. This is the "quantity theory of money" and can be expressed in a famous equation by the American astronomer and economist Simon Newcomb: MV = PT. "M" signifies the actual quantity of money; "V" signifies the "velocity," which is the rate at which money circulates or how long money is held out of circulation; "T" is the number of transactions, or exchanges; and "P" is the level of prices. This equation easily illuminates most questions about inflation or deflation, which is how money becomes less or more valuable over time. The evidence for the "quantity theory" is that historically inflation and deflation have occurred independently of economic growth and recession, as can be seen in the data from Friedman and Schwartz given below. ..." |
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| | From: codify | Sent: 10/13/2008 3:23 AM |
Yea I knew they could float bonds or raise taxes. And like you, I wouldn't think there'd be much demand for them. But we will have to become more productive. I think the Stock Market could rebound big time, or we could just get overwhelmed. The consumer seems to be tapped at the moment. |
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