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| | | From: bruceboje (Original Message) | Sent: 6/30/2003 2:33 PM |
The proper play of suit combinations vary depending on how many tricks are required. My partner and I recently bid a poor slam. He needed to play this suit for no losers and made the wrong play. By the way, no play would have worked. There's no real good hints about the opponents'high cards or distribution. There are plenty of entries. What's the best play for 5 tricks holding: AK1097 opposite 823 ? How about 4 tricks? Say you are playing the suit in a match point game and you cash the Ace and the opponent behind the long suit drops the jack. What's the best play to pick up the suit for no losers? |
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Good post. I can't memorize large tables of probabilites. But I know some and can guess at rest. Here is how I would solve this at the table...... Let's see, no losers. 3 possibilities - QJ(x...) onside = 25% - This one I remember because it comes up so often.
- QJ-stiff offsides = Must be much less than 25%. Same 25%, but specifically no small cards
- H-stiff offsides. hmmm, 3-2 is about 68% so 4-1 must be about 25-30%. 3 small cards and 2 honors, so getting one of the honors is 40% of that or about 10-12%. (For the head math impaired, figure less than half. Less than half of 30% is less than 15%. Since that is not close to 25%, you don't need much figuring.)
Winner = play for QJ(x...) onside |
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There are three questions here. How is the suit best played for 5 tricks? How is this suit most safely played for 4 tricks? What's the best play if the ace is led and the opponent drops an honor behind the ace? |
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How is the suit best played for 5 tricks? I'd play the Ace and pray for an honor to drop behind the Ace and then finesse the other honor all day. How is the sut best played for 4 tricks? I'd finesse and expect the honors to be split. What is the best play if the ace is led and the opponent drops an honor behind the ace? Same answer as the first. I think there is a stronger probability that the honors are split. Ok, How wrong am I?  |
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The best play for 5 tricks is double finesse = 25%. Playing the ace first hoping to drop a singleton honor = about 10-12%. To play safely for 4 tricks - first cash ace, then finesse. This takes 4 tricks whenever 4 tricks are possible. If you play the ace and an honor drops off-side, return to hand and finesse for other honor. |
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