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General : AMAG  
     
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Recommend  Message 1 of 32 in Discussion 
From: Kutz  (Original Message)Sent: 12/2/2008 3:53 PM
AMAG:  Picked up some shares at $30.75 this morning-spent about 6 hours checking this out last night.  Used CEPH money and profits to cover the cost.
 
Chart looks pretty compelling to me. Especially after where it was earlier in the year.  In October the FDA flagged a study site issue and a manufacturing issue and the ticker tanked, then came back when it was realized the issues were minor, acted on, and then the FDA gave a Class 1 re-review-the quicker one!  This is often a real good indicator that it will be approved.  The best buy-in was October, but this could make $8.00-20.00/share within a month or so if approved? 
 
Tough general market environment to go after drug plays though-it tends to mute them some. 
 
Its not a giant drug (maybe 300-400 million after 2/3 years)   The FDA rules on a drug they have and it relates to AMGN two big sellers-helps with iron in blood for patients having their blood filtered due to renal insufficiency by 12/29/08.  This would be a prime buyout target for AMGN, if it gets approved (god knows AMGN needs to expand their portfolio).  I give it a 80-85% chance of approval this time.
 
The efficacy data is good and the safety data is really good.  It reminds me of the BMRN FDA approval of Kuvan.  They have their manufacturing facility ready, made their first batch of commercial drug,  and have already hired a sales staff to hit the ground running.  I would not try to play this long term, but their are potential trades to be made here in the next 90 days (pre-decision/post-decision)!
 
Interesting science!  I'm in-may buy a little more if that fat guy Franky posted pulls it down more before the decision.
 
Bio is alrways risky.  If you bite, get any refunds from Greedy Scott----LOL!
 
Kutz 
 
 


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Recommend  Message 18 of 32 in Discussion 
From: KutzSent: 12/5/2008 5:42 PM
Franky/Al:  Thats a good point to paying off the house (even if you are on the backside of the loan and paying less interest).  Its kind of like investing!  That still lots of interest saved. 
 
My house is nice for NC, but not ostentatious!  The county assessed in at just over $304,000 on 2700 square feet and 0.75 acres.  I am down to the last 5 years of payments and the tax credit for filing is not as good as it once was!  Time to clear it off the books for peace of mind.  Daughter off to college in 4+ years!
 
It is piece of mind and makes further degradation in the economy much easier to deal with and survive.  Thats a big monthly bill not going out and if one is surviving well and holds jobs, then the accounts start to fill right back up over time.
 
Again I am DAMN lucky to be able to do this, realize others are earlier in their housing history and do not have the flexibility.  This economic situation blew up at least at the right time for me personally. 
 
If its going to happen, at least its easy to dispose of, and while 51 years old, I hope to have some time to use this situation as a springboard if given the chance!
 
kutz 

Reply
Recommend  Message 19 of 32 in Discussion 
From: MSN NicknamealburjdtyieSent: 12/5/2008 6:39 PM
From the bottom of the Great Depression, on July 7, 1932, with the DOW @ 41.22 points, in real dollars (adjusted for inflation) it took until sometime in 1960 to recover. That should make you feel better, Kutz! With your age, your weight and a very springy springboard you mught just make it!!!
 
Al (BIG)

Reply
Recommend  Message 20 of 32 in Discussion 
From: KutzSent: 12/5/2008 10:24 PM
No that timeline won't work for me! We might both be in that great golf course in the sky!
 
AMAG
+1.33
 
BMRN all over again-acting the same way. 
 
I tell you chances are good the FDA will approve before you see Dick Clark again!
 
Kutz 

Reply
Recommend  Message 21 of 32 in Discussion 
From: KutzSent: 12/17/2008 1:40 PM
Currently up here about $3.00/share from my buy-maybe 10% up!  8 trading days or less until I should hear?
 
Very large short position with a basically a very small number of outstanding shares.  Had a couple of down days I believed were orchestrated for some shorts to exit.  Many are still there I feel! 
 
Last FDA decision point for me until the drug review process is overhauled!-only in because I already was in, think this is a 80% chance on the positive side, only one more chance to reward or screw me from the FDA!
 
Tick Tock!
 
Kutz 

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Recommend  Message 22 of 32 in Discussion 
From: KutzSent: 12/18/2008 1:04 AM
Up over a buck again!  Now up over $4.00 on my shares
 
Traders are going to jump this for the decision.  I expect it to rise into the decision with small one day rests!.  Go you pig!
 
Kutz 

Reply
Recommend  Message 23 of 32 in Discussion 
From: KutzSent: 12/22/2008 3:21 PM
Took a big hit on Friday (option expiration?) (witching), but its back up this AM!  +$1.62.
 
Still waiting on my last FDA decision in play for quite a while!
 
Kutz 

Reply
Recommend  Message 24 of 32 in Discussion 
From: KutzSent: 12/31/2008 11:19 AM
AMAG:  Well the ticker is still rising even with the latest FDA delay!  Nobody knows for sure yet whether the delay will be short or long (days/weeks/months)?  Many thought this would drop back into the 20s, but to date it has been very strong.
 
Shares bought at $30.75 are profitable for me currently! My other block of purchased shares is also profitable, though less so.  A bit worried that this will be brought back after the New Years when volume ratchets up and market traders are back?
 
I either hold what I got and maybe add if it falls back OR
I sell some shares for profit (especially if it moves up today) and hold my other block and then hope I get the pullback to re-enter cheaper?
 
Decisions-Decisions-must decide before those traders come back from the Jersey Shore!
 
Traders on my shoulder talking in my ear again!
 
Kutz 

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Recommend  Message 25 of 32 in Discussion 
From: KutzSent: 1/5/2009 3:13 PM
Sold 60% of AMAG this morning for a $1,400.00 profit.  The FDA has delayed.  The ticker has held up well, but here again, I look to cement in profit and hope to buy back in lower here too?  I still hold some profitable shares in case the FDA surprises me
 
This tickers price above $35.00 is just a lot of money to leave floating around when some of it is profitable.  In the past I would hold here.  This is 2009! Trader says take profit when available.  I did it!
 
If the FDA approves tonight-well oh well!
 
Two 2009 trades-two sets of profit!  Takes over $10,000.00 off the table.  Won't hesitate to do another trade if given the chance.  We will see if I get the chance?
 
Kutz 

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Recommend  Message 26 of 32 in Discussion 
From: MSN NicknameScott482Sent: 1/5/2009 6:29 PM
Go Kutz... Banking profits in the new year already... ... Was this a New Year's resolution???  

Reply
Recommend  Message 27 of 32 in Discussion 
From: KutzSent: 1/5/2009 10:02 PM
Finger on the trigger-sell for profit now-ask questions later!    Got to be more of a trader-period! 
 
Kutz 

Reply
Recommend  Message 28 of 32 in Discussion 
From: KutzSent: 1/6/2009 3:45 PM
Look at that Crazy Ivan.  Bet that took some protection out!  Just go back to <$30.00 and I will buy my shares right back!
 
Kutz 

Reply
Recommend  Message 29 of 32 in Discussion 
From: MSN NicknamemacroscopicSent: 1/6/2009 5:31 PM

Kutz- what happened to this ticker in mid-Nov?

Reply
Recommend  Message 30 of 32 in Discussion 
From: KutzSent: 1/6/2009 6:45 PM
Macro:  Mid October was the original FDA decision date for their drug.  They gave it a complete response letter over manufacturing facility issues (see the steady drop in PPS).  The FDA audited the AMAG facility, found defficiencies, so they did not approve and reported the defficiencies in what is called a "483".  The PPS tanked in this time period as you can see.
 
It then immediately moved back up (in just a couple days) when it was revealed by the company that issues were minor, quickly repaired them, and re-submited the submission-LOL!. Nobody knew originally how serious the facility issues were?   This happened quickly (in mid-November-see your chart for the PPS jujmp)  and the FDA gave it a Class 1 (quick) re-review and a 12/30 decision date (mostly suggests again the issues were minor). 
 
All thought this approval was imminent so I bought shares at this point (early/mid December).  "Waited until what I thought actually might be the last throes of the process".     NOooooo!
 
The FDA then did not meet that 12/30 date, the company says they have not heard of any response from the FDA to their facility resolutions and here we sit with a bouncing stock with all involved in limbo.  Same old FDA crap!
 
The issues are minor but the current speculation is the FDA may have to go back to the plant and inspect the resolutions.  Another point of speculation is that there was a manufacturing issue with the packaging and its unknown whether stability was re-initiated with a packaging resolution in October/November.  Unfortunately the FDA takes weeks and months to schedule these visits and do what they should complete in days.  The holidays and FDA vacations may have also played a scheduling role?
 
The PPS has held up well since, but as reported, I sold some because the longer this goes the more likely it can get dragged backwards by manipulating market makers. If this happens I can buy cheaper later with less exposure.  I still have shares if it gets approved quickly!
 
I still believe in a very likely approval (no study issues or questions about whether its safe or works, and the drug label has already been negotiated), but the timeline was screwed up here by "you know who".  They don't meet their metrics they set for themselves and likely did their facility inspection too close to the end of the review process and therefore the company got the 483 form at the end of the initial process.!  I look for approval in the next 90 days, but the FDA is just that useless?
 
Net result-call it government red tape!  Will the FDA just approve, or issue another review period (have been doing it either way)?
 
I am looking for re-entry under $30.00 or just take what I got and wait.  Played it safe here-took some profit due to mistrust in this agency!  They have become as reliable as FEMA!  Don't get caught in a FDA flood!  You'll drown!
 
Kutz 

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Recommend  Message 31 of 32 in Discussion 
From: KutzSent: 1/7/2009 3:45 PM
Down another $1.45-they are dragging it back under $30.00 I surmise!  I know bio investors waiting for PPS in the 20's to get back in and/or add----ME TOO!
 
Kutz 

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Recommend  Message 32 of 32 in Discussion 
From: KutzSent: 1/8/2009 10:31 PM
Attached is a post from Yahoo that sumerizes exactly where AMAG is with the FDA in my eyes.  This post says it better than I!
 
 
Last FDA decision for a while-I mean it--LOL  Gotta make up for that ACUS
 
Kutz 

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