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| General
: Important Stuff on Fed and Rate Cut |
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Boys and Girls..WE are in the Final 2 minutes of this Game. Yes the .75 pts cut was not expected. Yes the market liked it today..probably tomorrow Will mtg rates and other credit rates also go down..WHO knows..I wouldn't bet on it But the DOW stopped right at the DOW 9,000 resistance.. So tomorrow will be interesting. The close Friday will be interesting.will DOW close up for the Week? The Rate cut to .25% ..YOU need to think about it.. On surface iut sounds GREAT..but IF market and Econ continue Bad..The FED is NOW in a BOX..FED is up against the WALL..they can only cut to Zero..another .25%..they can (being at .25) cut less ..like .05 .01 ..015 etc .. But They are NOW Out of Ammo..the Missiles have ALL been Fired but One.. NOW the only thing a NEW Fed Guy (OBAMA's pick) has is 25%..he only thing They can DO if Econ Fails is NOW PRINT $$$$..Throw MORE and MORE printed $$$ at the Problem.and Pray it works..If it doesn't we end up lie Germany,ITALY ect.. The Fed owuld be bankrupt (but mask it by Printing the Deflated $$$.. Also that strategy = Huge Inflation and decline $$. GOLD is already signaling that..and OIL Soon Will. Start another run.. To sum things up..ALL of the bets are now on the Table and the dice is Being thrown..Better Pray for a 7 or 11 |
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Microscopic..or is it Micronobrain..LOL neither, actually. and please, spare me the juvinile name baiting, or i will have to ban you.  That isn't my Quote,,that is YOU Telling EVERYONE HERE that About YOURSELF.. that YOU are. Scared and wishing you can recoup your lost Retirement.... are you reading impaired? and i am only down 25%, so it won't take me long to recoup. that is a little over an average year for me. i come to here for advice. period. yeah. i forgot that. my bad. MICRO... Don't get Mad at me..IT Was you that LOST it..NOT me.. FRINKY- i am not mad. i never lost it. and I'll ADD..IF you stay in the Market being Tis emotional..YOU Will Lose Whatever YOU have LEFT.. well, i am staying in, Frinky. and i will bet any amount of money that i will not lose everything (because i am 44% cash). YOU can Not be emotional and Beat the Market..EMOTION is a Hug(E) Emeny.. i am approximately as emotional about the stock market as i am dirty socks. YOu can put that time reading and Learning about the market. May I suggest you can suggest whatever you like, but i have been in the market since 1977. were you even born in 1977, Frinky? |
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I have been in the Market since 1969 MicroBrain.. longrt than that if you count Custodian accounts under supervision you ..But that = Nothing. Unlike YOU I have been 24/7 in the Market for the since 1995.. |
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| | | From: Kutz | Sent: 12/19/2008 1:46 PM |
God Franky your old or your dad opened your account when you were eating Gerbers!  I am down about what Macro is and at 46% cash! But I made 85% over the three preceding years-nobody wants to go backward, but realistically we all basically are underacheiving this year-its not us unless you want to blame each other for being in anything at all! The Duke endowment fund is down 19% this year and the controllers are way smarter than I! I am confident we ALL are doing better than most! We wish it did not happen (it had to), but its relative unless you went for the mother load-one should never bet the farm! There are people out there who have lost 50-60-70%! I'd go back to all our predictions from last January, but I'll play nice. Isn't a body on this board who was totally right. Maybe Shake who bailed 1.5 years ago. Presiding has been mostly right for the last 6-10 months overall! Even Franky has had turkey picks, but its clear he protects himself with options and shorting. Everybody else on this board has their turkey buys, sells, and predictions! Everybody! You can't go back, only forward! Kutz |
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| | | From: Kutz | Sent: 12/19/2008 2:09 PM |
More interesting 2008 loss data! Duke endowment is down 19% this year. They have lost 1 billion dollars since June! Those Blue Devils just ain't so smart either! Harvard endowment is down 22% this year. Where is the supposed best business school in America? Its 44% of their operating budget! LMAO! Yale is down 25% this year-so much for an Ivy league education! they pass out dunce hats too! We are all either as smart as them or as dumb as them-take your pick-ITS RELATIVE and how you look at it. Most everyone is suffering now! Not everyone deserves it-it is what it is! Kutz |
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Of Course ,you are 100% correct Dr KUTZ.... Unless you subscrided to total Meltdown, you are behind.. actuallu GOLD .etc..the defensive plays have also lost (Gold was $1,000+, now in $800's even after recent run).. and Cash has been king (but even that with low rates has lost REAL buying power. IThe correct thing as I, you and many others here is to Take Profits, resist the Greed..doing that you will be Ok, even in a Doomsday sitiustion like SIRI..(if you took profits at 9,8,7,6,5) ..As they say in Vegas..When you get ahead.. PLAY only with the House $$$..  I have learned a long time Ago.. Prepare for the worst and NEVER .EVER confuse a Major Bull market with Being a Genius.  so I hedge everything with Options..Sure you may give up some upside but you Will survive the Meltdowns. I too will be away(from computer most next week) ..so Everyone have a Great Holiday |
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I have been in the Market since 1969 MicroBrain.. longrt than that if you count Custodian accounts under supervision Geeeeze I was uh,,,, busy with the 'sand market' then.. ..... |
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I have been in the Market since 1969 MicroBrain.. last warning, Franky. i am here to exchange investment details, not to call names. i will begin by deleting posts. i will conclude by deleting you. please don't test me. longrt than that if you count Custodian accounts under supervision you ..But that = Nothing. it doesn = nothing if you are making investment decisions. Unlike YOU I have been 24/7 in the Market for the since 1995.. you are right about that. i have never been in the market 24/7, and i never will. |
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Franky- what % cash are you right now? |
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| This message has been deleted by the manager or assistant manager. |
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Franky- forgive me for thinking you were under 20 years old. i don't normally get called "Microbrain" by someone who is old enough to join AARP. |
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Marcro..PS if you want to delete me..Go ahead..The Boards are going bye bye anyway in 2 months.. But If you are here to excange advice ect.. I can deal on that level. #1) the custondian Account I said =you miss what I say/think. Yes, I mostly followed the broker's "Thinking" at 12-14yr but made more and more Decisions as i gained knowledge. . He was with a OLD School Firm in Balto) Alex Brown & Sons.He was also a personall friend of Family.Took a personal interest in teaching me about the Market. (said it was great to see a have a 13 yr Old have interest in Investments.) Back in "the good old days,before Legation Nation,things like that could be done (verbal OK).yrs. Also back in the "good Days, even being under 21, you could go to the local Bars,if you were with Regulars..Again..NOT like the "sue everyone..I was verey lucky to have both a father +Broker friend taking a hands On Interest in my Love for Market and Business as I lived the teen . I to this day Owe Both a Lot for my sucess. I have always said..VERY FEW can DO what I do..Market 24/7..VERY FEW can have my sucess or Even Knowledge....YOu have to have a REAL Love..A total Passion for the Market..SO YES I am saying That I am probably Above most here..thay is REALITY .Like we would all be behind getting on a Football Field ,Basketball court with any NFL and NBA guy.. also YES I have a Huge ego..YOU need that to be a Sucessful Trader #2..I am Now 35% in Cash.lately (in this type of situation we are in,Cash is 30-40% (selling at top of Trading range DOW 9,000,rebuy towards DOW 8,000.PS Options play a hug(E) Part. options that expired today(Sat) will increase Cash% as I write new Ones mon-wed.. In normal Market times, I range from 10-20 % Cash Finally.. Franky- forgive me for thinking you were under 20 years old. i don't normally get called "Microbrain" by someone who is old enough to join AARP. Again , my Unoradox thinking and Lifestyle.. AGE is inmaterial to me and my Circle..AGE is zippo ,it is all about your thinking.. Sure being in low 50's is now AARP (i have never joined) but I have not joined that group..Vegas is a Big plus..Besides the Casinos, 24/4 Bars and many Swinger parties (if you know what they Are).. I have no timefor AARP..lol |
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Our Gov at Work... No recession for them |
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Marcro..PS if you want to delete me..Go ahead..The Boards are going bye bye anyway in 2 months.. i don't. i simply want to exchange information in a mutually respectful environment without flame wars. i don't have time to waste on anything else. also YES I have a Huge ego..YOU need that to be a Sucessful Trader understood. i have NO ego in this game. it is purely an intellectual challenge for me- and i am NOT a trader. my average hold time is 18 months. i wish i had more time for it, honestly. it is a very volatile market, and THAT is what worries me. stuff that happens Sunday can have a profound affect on me, and i am not good with that. fundamentals are out the window in this kind of market. it is pure spec. in short, it suits your playing style, not mine. that will not cause me to change my style, as i would need about 10x more time per week to alter it. |
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Macro You are correct, this kinda market favors the "trader,not Investor. and Yes to trade,even using my style of Option Hedging you need be be available When the markets are open, even Longer for Pre-after+After Market moves.. Again in this type of market We have at this time.. And I understand, NOT everyone has the Time to devote to the Market, many also don't have the desire either. Again, Investing is a Different animal to Trading. WOW 18 months holding..I haven't held even a Mutal Fund that long for over 13 yrs (when i became a Full time Markey Guy(trader/hedger.) My avg for most trades is less than 2 days..For investments it is aboout 6-9 months tops with usuing options, (the core holdings issue can be longer ,as long as 12-15 months using options, until the "Momentium Play is Gone" YOU are also correct that FA is nothing in this market. My Advice to you, not saying you should change your style, is to be Very careful and DEFENSIVE at this time..This market could Stay this Way for a Really long time..(PS remember the Period from Jun 1969 to Mid 1982) , 12 yrs the DOW traded within 850 pts.. I remember it, was just starting out,happened at the best time for me, Learned many lessons, including (Changing my STYLE to suit the Market condidtions)..Again I am not saying YOU should do that..But I would Advise Adjusting Your Style toward the Market condiditions we have at present , or becoming VERY DEFENSIVE until the market resumes a more Normal Enviroment. On that point, Don't fall into the trap of Fearing "missing the upturn"..on that , for your Style (investing) there would be plenty of Gains available AFTER the MARKET makes a DEF Bottom..cracking the DOW 9653 level at this time that I referred to. Not being DEFENSIVE, you will be whipsawed and make zippo in my viiew at Best... At worst the market could fail and MELTDOWN after the Honneymoon period for Obama. You seem to know that and have a decent Cash Position, the trick is not to commit the Cash until there is a DEF Reco Turn, both from a ,TA and FA View... |
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Franky- thanks- that was a very helpful post! |
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