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General : Early voting in Florida shows election day trend?
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 Message 1 of 12 in Discussion 
From: MSN Nicknamecathymv722  (Original Message)Sent: 10/30/2008 2:15 PM
I have been reading stories about internal polls, and the views that the media has hyperinflated Obama's poll numbers, the media hoping that they can influence people to vote with a "winner".. but then we have this:
 

McCain Up in Florida Early Voting Poll

This is very interesting. According to an LA Times/Bloomberg poll of those who voted early in Florida, McCain leads Obama 49-45% even though more Democrats voted than Republicans:

Democrats are beaming that their party is outperforming the Republicans in early voting, releasing numbers Wednesday that show registrants of their party ahead 54 percent to 30 percent among the 1.4 million voters who have gone to the polls early.

"We're thrilled at the record turnout so far," said Democratic Party of Florida spokesman Eric Jotkoff. "It's a clear indication that Democrats want to elect Barack Obama and Democrats up and down the ballot so that we can start creating good jobs, rebuilding our economy and getting our nation back on track."

But party breakdowns for turnout aren't the same as final tallies, and at least one poll offered a different view for the campaign of Republican John McCain.

A Los Angeles Times/Bloomberg poll gave McCain a 49-45 lead over Democrat Barack Obama among Floridians who have already voted.

And Republicans continued to show a traditional strength, leading 50 percent to the Democrats' 30 percent in the 1.2 million absentee ballots already returned.

Democrats are beaming that more Democrats came out to vote early but it seems many of them aren't voting for the Democrat candidate. Hmmm.

http://www.wizbangblog.com/

 



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 Message 2 of 12 in Discussion 
From: MSN NicknameLukeFromTXSent: 10/30/2008 4:52 PM
This is but onoe reason I am dead set against the entire concept of early voting.  The impact that polling data from early voting can have one way or the other on those who come later in the process, most particularly those like myself who are foolish enough to wait and participate in the traditional voting process. 

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 Message 3 of 12 in Discussion 
From: NoseroseSent: 10/30/2008 7:24 PM
I can't see how any information supposed or actual will change anybodies mind at this late date. It the incompetence of those who gather the votes and the voting machines themselves that I fear.

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 Message 4 of 12 in Discussion 
From: MSN NicknameTheJollyTrollSent: 10/30/2008 7:33 PM
We will see, actualy Obama's lead there wasn't much by anyone's standards; however this does give Democrat Organizers a wedge to push people to vote there and other states.

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 Message 5 of 12 in Discussion 
From: MSN NicknameLukeFromTXSent: 10/30/2008 7:40 PM
I can't see how any information supposed or actual will change anybodies mind at this late date. It the incompetence of those who gather the votes and the voting machines themselves that I fear.
 
Let's face it, we're both paranoid.  I'm afraid of the process, and you are afraid of the individuals who control the process.

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 Message 6 of 12 in Discussion 
From: MSN NicknameSummerMoondancer1Sent: 10/30/2008 8:55 PM
Luke not every person can wait till Tuesday...some have jobs to do or for other reasons are unable to go to the polls on the specific date.  That is the reason they have early voting.  My husband and myself both voted early.  He will be in Detroit, Michigan on Tuesday and our home state is Georgia.  I am overseas. So it made it necessary for both of us to vote early. 

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 Message 7 of 12 in Discussion 
From: MSN NicknameTheJollyTrollSent: 10/30/2008 9:09 PM
As with the case that every post that shows McCain ahead... it is a Cherry picked statistic. In the first four Googled Websites that are counting the numbers, most say Obama has a huge lead in the Early Voters (Florida may be the exception). In fact the only people that see other wise are Republican Professionals... Hmmm... I wonder why.
 

 
WASHINGTON, Oct. 28 (Xinhua) -- U.S. Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama is leading his Republican opponent John McCain by 53 percent to 34 percent among early voters, a new poll indicated Tuesday.

    The poll was conducted by the Pew Research Center among some of the 12 million voters who have already cast ballots six days ahead of the presidential election day on Nov. 4.

US election: Obama leads McCain by 19 points among early�?/A>

More than 12m of about 213m eligible American voters across the country have already cast ballots, sometimes waiting in queues around the block to do so, despite the election being six days away.

Barack Obama is leading 53% to McCain's 34% among those who have already voted, according to a poll released today by the Pew Research Centre.

Under a procedure known simply as early voting, 32 states allow voters to cast a ballot before election day, either in person at the polling site or by mail. An additional 14 states and Washington DC allow it if voters can argue they will be unavailable next Tuesday.

The long October queues at polling places anticipate a tremendous surge in voter turnout over previous elections, and statistics from key states indicate an advantage for Barack Obama over rival John McCain among early voters.

"If we're in an election year where you have to wait two hours to vote early, you can imagine what it will look like on election day proper," said Doug Chapin, an election expert at the Pew Centre on the States.

Early US voting appears to favour Obama - ABC News (Australian ...

Americans are turning out en masse to get their votes in ahead of the November 4 US presidential election, with a surge in early-voting Democrats suggesting Barack Obama may lead the vote tally thus far.

Huge numbers of people queued up at libraries, malls and schools to get their picks in early in key battleground states like Ohio, Florida and Nevada, as Americans sought to avoid the long lines, registration and voting machine hiccups that marred the 2004 presidential vote, election officials said.

In some states like Georgia and North Carolina early voting was double the pace of the last election.

"Early voting has steadily increased from 14 per cent in 2000 to 20 per cent in 2004, and [we] predict that as many as a third of the electorate in 2008 will cast their votes before November 4," said Paul Gronke, who heads the Early Voting Centre at Reed College in Portland, Oregon.

Republicans See Edge From Early Voting - WSJ.com

WASHINGTON -- Down in the polls and with their majorities in Congress at risk, Republicans say they have some good news in early-voting statistics that suggest their voter-turnout machine is providing an edge in some tight races.

If the trend holds, it could mean that early voting is growing -- and continuing to benefit Republicans, who exploited the practice in the 1990s. Experts say early voters could be a bigger factor this year when overall voter turnout could be lower than in 2004, a presidential-election year.

This year, though, Democrats contend that Republicans are exaggerating their successes so far, by ...


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 Message 8 of 12 in Discussion 
From: MSN NicknamernrbillSent: 10/30/2008 9:28 PM
Let us NEVER Forget that on election night 2000, The major new channels called FL for Gore at approximately 7PM.  Twenty minutes later Dumbya said 'that's not what my people say'.  I said right then and there that Dumbya was stealing the election.

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 Message 9 of 12 in Discussion 
From: MSN NicknameTheJollyTrollSent: 10/30/2008 9:33 PM
Remember McCain has allot of States to steal...

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 Message 10 of 12 in Discussion 
From: MSN NicknameTheJollyTrollSent: 10/30/2008 9:36 PM
10/28/08

What McCain Needs!

1. Gain 1.8% in Florida.
2. Gain 5.4% in Ohio.
3. Maintain his 3.9% lead in Georgia.
4. Gain 1.9% in North Carolina.
5. Gain 2.0% in Indiana.
6. Gain 1.7% in Missouri.
7. Gain 4.6% in Nevada.
8. Edge a little bit ahead in Montana and North Dakota.
9. Turn this around in Virginia by gaining 7.5%.
10. Then either win Pennsylania or one of the following three states (Colorado, Iowa, New Mexico).

From usaelectionpolls.com

The first 8 are possible, but 7.5% in Virginia with no momentum is a tall order indeed, even with the "Bradley Effect". On the issue of # 10 they are all 8+ points and Obama is above 50% in all of them. That gives Obama a "Bradley Proof" Election.


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 Message 11 of 12 in Discussion 
From: MSN NicknameLukeFromTXSent: 10/30/2008 9:43 PM
He will be in Detroit, Michigan on Tuesday and our home state is Georgia.  I am overseas. So it made it necessary for both of us to vote early. 
And those both constitute legitimate cases for Absentee ballots.  But not this crazy early voting phenomenon that has swept the country.   There will always be the need for Absentee ballots which are legal in all states.  And yes, even I have cast two absentee ballots, including my first presidential election in 1968 when I was also "overseas" thanks to Uncle Sam.  But it is this early voting process that bothers me.  At the close of last week (the first week of early voting) here in my county, a total of 39,000 ballots were cast out of a total eligible electorate of 153,000.  Anyway you cut that, its 25% of the eligible voters who have voted two full weeks before the election date.   And I can only assume that somewhat similar patterns are evolving statewide, including in the nine metro areas that are more populous than this one.  And I'm sorry but I can't help but feel that the survey results from that number will ultimately have an impact on the remaining electorate.  And that doesn't even address the other problematic issues related to massive early voting patterns.

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 Message 12 of 12 in Discussion 
From: MSN NicknameSummerMoondancer1Sent: 10/31/2008 4:38 AM
Oh for crying out loud Bill...Bush did not steal the election in 2000 and Obama is not stealing the election now...ridiculous...can we not all get past this..Bush and Gore were a close election in fact it was quite clear that it was neck and neck..I can understand the mistake..it was a mistake..Bush had won and that was clear after counting and recounting...till I was sick to my stomach. 

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