For the first three months of 2004, consumer prices increased at a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of

5.1 percent. This compares with an increase of 1.9 percent for all of 2003. The index for energy, which rose 6.9

percent in 2003, accelerated in the first quarter of 2004, advancing at a 38.6 percent SAAR and accounting for about

half of the first quarter advance in the overall CPI-U. Petroleum-based energy costs increased at an 82.5 percent

annual rate and charges for energy services rose at a 4.2 percent annual rate. The food index rose at a 1.3 percent

SAAR in the first quarter of 2004. The index for grocery store food prices decreased at a 0.2 percent annual rate,

reflecting declines in the indexes for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs and for fruits and vegetables--down at annual rates

of 3.7 and 2.2 percent, respectively.

Excluding food and energy, the CPI-U advanced at a 2.9 percent SAAR in the first quarter, following a 1.1

percent rise in all of 2003. While many categories advanced at a faster rate in the first quarter of 2004 than in all of

2003, most of the acceleration was accounted for by larger increases in the indexes for shelter and for medical care,

and an upturn in the index for apparel. The annual rates for selected groups for the last seven and one-quarter years

are shown below.

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

All items 1.7 1.6 2.7 3.4 1.6 2.4 1.9 5.1

Food and beverages 1.6 2.3 2.0 2.8 2.8 1.5 3.5 1.5

Housing 2.4 2.3 2.2 4.3 2.9 2.4 2.2 3.5

Apparel 1.0 -.7 -.5 -1.8 -3.2 -1.8 -2.1 2.0

Transportation -1.4 -1.7 5.4 4.1 -3.8 3.8 .3 14.9

Medical care 2.8 3.4 3.7 4.2 4.7 5.0 3.7 5.8

Recreation 1.5 1.2 .8 1.7 1.5 1.1 1.1 2.2

Education and

communication 3.0 .7 1.6 1.3 3.2 2.2 1.6 1.8

Other goods and services 5.2 8.8 5.1 4.2 4.5 3.3 1.5 2.8

Special indexes

Energy -3.4 -8.8 13.4 14.2 -13.0 10.7 6.9 38.6

Energy commodities -6.9 -15.1 29.5 15.7 -24.5 23.7 6.9 82.5

Energy services .2 -3.3 1.2 12.7 -1.5 .4 6.9 4.2

All items less energy 2.1 2.4 2.0 2.6 2.8 1.8 1.5 2.7

Food 1.5 2.3 1.9 2.8 2.8 1.5 3.6 1.3

All items less

food and energy 2.2 2.4 1.9 2.6 2.7 1.9 1.1 2.9

look, i've got a six year old kid, and we're leaving her and all the other kids one hell of a mess to clean up.  it's stupid and i'm ashamed for us all.  look at these numbers?  look at the chart of the pdf where it's easy to see.  in the year 2000 we ran 3.4% and 2.1% less food / energy the saar for this year is 5.1 and 2.9 respectively [i just told stan saar was 4.4 yesterday which is a 16% increase stan!!! IN ONE MONTH!!!]. now go back and look at what the interest rates were in 2000.

so this is understandable.  i told stan yesterday that the saar was at 4.4% compared with 1.9% for all last year.  today, the saar is now 5.1% which is a 16% increase from 4.4% in one month.  i going to keep ranting even if i'm talking to myself, but i'm doing some other stuff too.

jfo