whatz the news that caused the stock to run thos two days 10 points and 5 points?

jfo

jfo,

don't know ... all the macro economics would suggest that they have to go down

someone said i should look into pulte homes as well ...

 

it may be worthwhile to id juicy shorting opportunities ... even if we wait to pull the trigger ...

 

you agree?

 

p.s. -- i am a novice, have never done a short and am not sure what the pitfalls are ...

10/10/03 Countrywide Financial surged almost 10 percent after the Calabasas, Calif., financial services firm boosted its earnings outlook for calendar 2003 to above $15 per share. It had been looking for a profit of $13 to $15 per share for the year. The company plans to release its third-quarter results on Oct. 23. Earlier in the session, the stock hit a 52-week high of $92.70.

 

CFC is a holding company that, through its principal  subsidiary, Countrywide Home Loans, Inc., engages primarily  in the mortgage banking business, and, as such, originates,  purchases, sells & services mortgage loans. For the 9 mos.  ended 9/03, revenues totaled $6.34B, up from $3.12B. Net  income totaled $1.81B, up from $586.9M. Revenues reflect  higher gains on loan & securities sales. Income also  reflects lower marketing costs as a percentage of revenues.

Countrywide Financial Corp. 4500 Park Granada Calabasas,  CA  91302 Phone: (818 ) 225-3000 Fax: (818 ) 304-5979 Sector: Financial Industry: Consumer Financial Services Updated: 12/06/2003

Key Ratios & Statistics

Price & Volume Recent Price $ 107.70 52 Week High $ 108.88 52 Week Low $ 48.08 Avg Daily Vol (Mil) 2.43 Beta 0.42 Share Related Items Mkt. Cap. (Mil) $ 14,872.29 Shares Out (Mil) 138.09 Float (Mil) 126.60 Dividend Information Yield % 0.74 Annual Dividend 0.80 Payout Ratio (TTM) % 3.28 Financial Strength Quick Ratio (MRQ) Current Ratio (MRQ) NM LT Debt/Equity (MRQ) 0.13 Total Debt/Equity (MRQ) 4.68

Valuation Ratios Price/Earnings (TTM) 7.27 Price/Sales (TTM) 1.91 Price/Book (MRQ) 1.96 Price/Cash Flow (TTM) 2.26 Per Share Data Earnings (TTM) $ 14.82 Sales (TTM) $ 56.51 Book Value (MRQ) $ 54.85 Cash Flow (TTM) $ 47.76 Cash (MRQ) $ 5.07 Mgmt Effectiveness Return on Equity (TTM) 34.82 Return on Assets (TTM) 2.86 Return on Investment (TTM) 23.44 Profitability Gross Margin (TTM) % Operating Margin (TTM) % 42.98 Profit Margin (TTM) % 26.67

Mil = Millions   MRQ = Most Recent Quarter   TTM = Trailing Twelve Months Asterisks (*) Indicates numbers are derived from Earnings Announcements Pricing and volume data as of 12/05/2003

Price Performance Period Actual(%) vs. S&P 500(%) In Industry Industry Rank 4 Week 5.6 4.8 72 42 13 Week 52.0 46.2 87 40 26 Week 41.6 31.7 73 9 52 Week 121.0 89.9 73 39 YTD 108.5 72.8 73 34 Note: Rank is a Percentile that Ranges from 0 to 99, with 99 = Best

Institutional Ownership % Shares Owned 91.85 # of Institutions 1274 Total Shares Held (Mil) 126.839 3 Mo. Net Purchases (Mil) 6.891 3 Mo. Shares Purchased (Mil) 27.744 3 Mo. Shares Sold (Mil) 20.854

Insider Trading (Prev. 6 months) Net Insider Trades -66 # Buy Transactions 2 # Sell Transactions 68 Net Shares Purchased (Mil) -0.659 # Shares Purchased (Mil) 0.001 # Shares Sold (Mil) 0.660 Source: Vickers Institutional Research

Short Interest Month Shares (Mil) % Outs. % Float Days 11/10/03 7.349 5.322 5.805 2.432 10/08/03 9.192 6.657 7.261 3.709 09/08/03 6.593 4.774 5.208 3.946 08/08/03 5.717 4.140 4.516 2.006

what do you see?

baser, i kinda like that name because i used to be a crack head back in the mid '80's, anyway, i can't bounce around with too many stocks, not good for the brain, but i did that when i was new to trading too, so do whatz you gotz to do, and don't take it personal if i don't look at every stock you talk about.

 

ivan

 

my simple chart rules have a failure rate this is not an 100% stuff, but i getz better that 75% take those odds to vegas and you do well.  i hope you gotz a chance to check out that site i posted showing top 10 chart patterns bull / bear.  anyway whatz i'm talking about is i expect ivan to meet resistance just below 4.50.  see when it broke the uptrend support "S"?  it broke at around 4.50ish.  for me, and i suppose others, this is where i expect resitance to further upward move in stock price -- HOLDING ALL ELSE EVEN ie: no weird news or world events.  also with ivan, momentum is neg, and the stoch is moving to overbought.  take that info and look at gss,

 

gss gave a buy signal at about 6.50 and showed good support at the "S" but when it broke that simple line of support, i expect that to become resistance "R" at around 7.50ish.  just looking at this chart, you had an itchy trigger finger on this one.  the stoch has turned up and momentum is turning up and i expect this stock will test at least 7.50 before it falls much.

 

all the best,

jfo

jfo,

i've been thinking i've been bouncing around too many stocks as well.  part of my sell-off was to get the portfolio to a smaller number of shares that i'll work with.  i am a little bit all over the place but i'm "thinking out-loud" here as well ...

 

ivan was a stupid buy at that price ... can't believe i did that ... but you have to learn with real money.

 

gss worked well for me on this trade ... bought at 6.44 sold at 7.10 in a day ... i'd take that every day  

i know you're making sense on the $7.50 thing but i'm trying to limit my exposure somewhat ... stan, stocky and bluey got me concerned with that margin call thing ...

 

jfo, don't concern yourself about posting with me ... you got a life!

 

have a good one!

 

 

 

 

no trouble, mate!

 

all the best, baser

jfo

btw, baser, my point really is that you don't have to have the same basket of stocks as me.  my real point is that when you see a chart pattern, that statistically is proven to make money 70+% of the time, sound off.  these are the statistics i follow, not as 100% rule but...

jfo

i had forgot to acknowledge your excellent link

i emailed the link to my wife and to my home email

and had printed it out already

learning this stuff is what i NEED to do

i'll start studying this weekend !!!!

 

thanks much sir!

... glad you're hangin round this board!

 

... and i'll be studying to see why crus is an excellent short opportunity

 

                        i'm loving this stuff!

thanks baser.  we call wolf, "sir."  i'm just an average ordinary guy [joe walsh?].  have some fun this weekend, all work and no play makes me a dull boy.

 

all the best,

jfo