Stocky,

It would appear we just got the first bounce.  It didn't quite make it back to the original HUI top.  If we are lucky, we will get another not quite as high, and then we go test the 200 day.

Could you repost the HUI, really focus on the places it hit the 200 dma and what had occurred in the weeks immediately preceding.  So far, this is looking almost identical to June 2002, Mar 2003 and probably a couple others.

 

Like you, I am really surprised Sinclair has nothing much to say about it.   I see two choices right now.  It stops at the 50 and bounces or it keeps right on going to the 200.  I won't sell right here, but if it bounces, I will probably lighten up some more.  Probably sell out a bit below this last top in the shares.  If I am wrong and it keeps going up, I will just have to reload later.  If I am right, I will be able to reinvest at a better entry in a month or so.  But I was really hoping this would wait until the new year.

there are maybe a few counter-arguments that i can "throw up"

as to why we could run at the 50dma for the next while ...

 

forget the last time we hit the 200dma ... that was war related

 

on the linked chart there was only a one period where we ran for an extended period above the 50dma ... other than that period we regularly bounced off the 200dma

 

like any downward spiral the momentum builds ... trouble begets trouble ... not sure if you guys have managed companies but there are costs that build during a downward spiral that accelerate the spiral the deeper you get into it ... for example, first you lose term discounts, then interest costs build as your debt requirements increase, then you hit bumps on the road which amplify problems ... additional fees are required for banking costs as they raise rates and remove priveleges on the margins ... soon your total financing costs increase significantly ... the bumps lead to cash crunches where you pay late fees to the government because you don't pay personal property taxes on time, then withholding taxes are paid late -- the spiral goes on and gets deeper until you make decisive corrections ...

 

only after corrections are decisively made can you reverse the momentum of the spiral ...

 

macro it to the economy ... consider the debt loads, default risks at the personal level are increasing -- this is why employment numbers are so important.  government debt is increasing .. what if tax revenues decline?  l/t borrowing costs are slowly increasing -- expanding public debt requires more debt service ... inflating your way out is always the first choice of government (a choice you and i don't have) ... note that NO decisive action can happen in an election year and i am certain will not happen until a crisis develops ... consider the crisis in DB pension plans ... if the stock market doesn't perform (and it won't in any meaningfull way) major problems are coming down the pipes ... i can go on and on with disjointed thoughts on the momentum downward that is developing ...

 

hey ... china reported an inflationary trend today!!  whaddya think .. a couple billion chinese, who love gold will invest in?  a small number will hop on board now but more will follow ... the momentum is building ... i'm, thinking that i need to discuss adding additional physical with my wife before gold starts rising in $cdn terms as it most certainly will eventually ... at the personal level, my hunger for physical is on the increase ... i ain't the only one ...did you notice that vic sidder on fedwatch jumped in on the party?  there are many newbies to come from a number of areas ...

 

an ex-girlfriend i keep in touch with is seriously dating some millionare now (she got lucky ... but she deserves it!) ... anyways, he's been investing in gold as well as advised by his pro-advisors ... more getting in ...  there is an exponential aspect to this ...

 

germany and france are in violation of the euro pact ... another momentum builder ... what do you think the odds are that they'll EVER get in line with the pact?  zero!!  absolute zero ... i bet astute euro zone investors are looking into gold now as well ... bluey's formula will breakdown ... it's been surprisingly robust to date ... but it will breakdown ... i predict when it breaks down decisively he will jump on gold shares and physical with a vengence!

 

many countries are expanding money supply at a far greater clip than the US!!!

 

there really are countless examples of heightened financial pressures out there!

hey stocky!

 

start typing!

Damn Sleater,

That last post could have been a new thread by itself.  Not even going to try to debate it. 

Stocky - I didn't realize the chart didn't post well (thats why I have kept asking for it).  Guess if I wasn't so lazy, I could post the link myself.    But everytime you do it, you add a couple of brilliant observations that make me think.

 

What you started looking into with GSS, CDE and ASL is exactly what I have been doing with all of the stocks I listed above that I am considering for Core and Trading.  I want to anticipate what they will do during the next pullback and determine where the optimum entry points will be.  What should we expect them to do and how should we expect them to recover.  Hopefully, Sleater can rig his Heavy Metal web page to make them all appear on a page of 10 with the HUI so they can easily be compared.   I am very interested in your assessment of them also.  Perhaps we start a string on each of them (and any others you see as top candidates).  I think we have some time, but we should use it determining our strategy going forward to maximize the opportunity when it eventually presents itself.  But of course, I could always be all wet.

you guys spell out what you want to see on the heavey metal link and i'll set it up ... it's a relatively painless investment!

Sleater,

When I open your link, the first page has ten charts on it.  Can you control which 10 they will be by the order in which you added them, or the prefix on their name??

 

What I would love to see is the first page (10 charts) be the most important as we as a team see them.  I am open for what we see as important, but if it were me alone, I would want to see a 2 year chart of the HUI, a six month chart of the HUI, followed by my "traders" and then my "core keepers".   In message #21 above, I laid out the ones I think are key, but I am open to debate on them. 

 

On the 2nd page, I would like to see the next top 10 contenders in Gold stocks

and on the 3rd page, the top 10 contenders with Silver as primary.  And maybe page 4 other commodities/stocks we see as important - ie copper, platinum, etc. 

 

And since I am wishing, perhaps page 5 as energy and page 6 as alternate energy, but now I am dreaming aren't I ???  Any of the above or the "others" can be easily found by selecting the alphabetical listing if we want to see a specific stock by itself.  What makes the 10 per page useful is to see them together.

 

I am not very demanding am I??? 

 

 

Ok, I looked again.

Actually I like your first page as is for the first 7 charts (may want to consider sequence??).

They are 1 year charts of the following:

0010 - $US Index

0011 - 10 yr T Note

0012 - CRB Index

0013 - Gold Continuous Contract

0014 - Silver Continuous Contract

01 - Amex Gold ($HUI)

01 - PHLX Gold/Silver - ($XAU)

-Round out top 10 with other type indexes - ie Energy, -  Stocky - suggestions??

It appears they sort by alpha-numeric, so you can assign your prefixes  00xx - to dictate the order.  Then make page 2 as I suggested previous for pg 1 (redisplay HUI again, etc.

We could create an index like above to allow them to be easily found.

With the prefix, you could still have the chart show up a second time where it can be found alphabetically also. 

Can you tell I really like what you are doing??  It is very powerful.  good work.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

no problemo ... i'll be going back to switzerland friday ... may spend some internet time monday but then going to GAY Paris for Christmas -- we hope to spend christmas eve in the notre dame cathedral there -- that would be AWESOME!!!

 

if i don't do it monday i may be forced to wait another week ...

 

but what can happen in a week?