if we look at what the "herd" thinks about ulbi and we consider these conditions as true:

 

1. stock price is a function of the expectation of future earnings potiential; and,

2. based on rule #1 above, the herd will set the buy and sell levels.

 

over the past 4 years, the herd believes that ulbi is overvalued above $15 a share because it's spent way more time below 15 than above over the past 4 years.  so for me, 15 is resitence [holding all else even] and anything over 15 is a short and anything below 15 is a buy.  the higher and lower above and below the better!

 

the other thing this chart shows us is that the herd thinks this stock is worth $10 a share fur sure, and that's the "safest" place to buy it holding all else even.  if the herd changes it's mind and sets a new trading range, that's because the herd has changed its mind about future earnings...

 

the herd changed its mind about ulbi, CLEARLY, early in '03.  why?  i don't have to go back and read the news because i can already tell you just from looking at this chart that ulbi's prospects to earn more money greatly improved upon that news in early '03.

jfo

if anyone's ever looked at illy's charts, you'd find a very complex pattern of lines.  i believe that it's been well proven over the years that the best ideas are usually simple.  i also believe it's been well proven that a synthetic arrogance based on technology will fail to predict the herd over the long haul.

 

most likely, everyone who overanalized ulbi with all the synthetic arrogance would have expected ulbi to continue to decline.  they were wrong, and the herd was right, again!

the other things i can say about ulbi just from this chart is that the herd is having a terrible time coping with the "visibility" of ulbi's future earnings.

 

thus we have the volitility of some large % movement in stock price.

 

ulbi made a double top at 25 a share which i believe can only be overcome with a significant change to the + side for future earnings and that there are some in the herd bought in at that level that will sell at anything near 25 a share just to get out even, thus making 25 a share more resistant to penetration.  therefore, you have to "wash out" the "weak hands" holding above 15 to 25 before any good news about earnings can move the stock higher than 25 a share.

did you mention cylical patterns?

 

VLNC makes batteries.

I make most of my profits selling to the herd - god bless 'em

 

Blygh

 

 

vlnc seems to have it together.

 

just watching..watching it walk away is all.