Following the trail

How vital a role have the media played in Madeleine McCann's disappearance? And where does the investigation go from here?

It is over three weeks since Madeleine was abducted from the Mark Warner's Ocean Club, a resort in Praia da Luz. A description of a suspect that was given to the police on the evening of her disappearance was not circulated immediately, indeed it was not until 22 days after her abduction that the police made a direct appeal to the public. Why?

The Portuguese police are governed by a "Judicial Secrecy", law, which effectively prevents them from revealing anything about an investigation. This includes any identification of possible suspects, for fear of jeopardising a future trial. This precludes them from working with or using the media in any way to publicise appeals, or to ask for targeted intelligence - or does it?

I understand that the police can only work within their laws, even if they are draconian and seriously restrictive on an effective investigation. So why, 22 days after Madeleine's abduction is it alright to release information? I don't know the answer. What I do know is that in a community which is transient and international, an appeal three weeks after Madeleine was abducted is of little use. Could such a vague description really interfere with any criminal proceedings? Is it not true that such information was vital in the early hours of the investigation and should have been released then to the public via the world's media?

Interestingly, the description they have now released is of a white male, 35-40 years old, medium build, and 5ft 10in tall- I wonder how many people would fit this very vague description in the area.

The first few hours of any critical incident are, "golden", as this is when the trail is fresh and witnesses are around. The initial stages were vital, in order to assess the nature of Madeleine's disappearance. Was she abducted from her bedroom, which would require an offender to have gained entry to the apartment, or did she wander off?

Examination of the scene and speaking with the Gerry and Kate McCann would have answered many of these questions almost immediately. Questions such as; were the patio doors open or insecure? Were the shutters up or down? Did she take a teddy or comforter with her? Did she have shoes on? What did they tell Madeleine to do if she woke up and wanted them?

The ACPO Guidelines of dealing with missing persons, state that when the circumstances are suspicious or unexplained the incident should be treated as a serious crime. "It is always easier to rein back from the early stages of a major investigation than it is to recover missed opportunities resulting from miscalculating the early stages."

It was not until Friday that the police treated Madeleine's disappearance as an abduction. Were vital clues lost in the first few hours, because they failed to categorise the incident correctly? I would suggest that this is the case.

So how could the media have helped in the early days? In the recent Ipswich murders, the police had a clear media strategy and appointed a designated senior officer for the entire media liaison. In the Madeleine's abduction the media should have been utilised in exactly the same way to put out crucial public appeals immediately.

For example, when Madeleine was abducted she was wearing distinctive pyjamas, yet this information was not made public until four days after she had gone missing, by the parents. At the same time the media happened upon the police website which contained brief details about her disappearance. Once again I ask, if they were able to release information onto a website, which is in the public domain, then why were they not able to make a public appeal? Incredibly the Portuguese police still have not released an incident room number, to which the public can call and provide information.

So how have the Portuguese police worked with the world's media? I would suggest they are keeping them at a long arm's length and telling them very little. The first press briefing, which I attended, was forced upon the police by the Portuguese media. Although the police succumbed to this demand, in order to make a point they turned up three hours late and gave the briefing in Portuguese, much to the disgust of the 50 or so British journalists.

Further press briefings have provided little information about the course of the investigation to the media or indeed the family. The lack of information has unfortunately resulted in some of the media being generous with their reporting.

Of course the media should be a balanced. The moral panic of "naming and shaming", which followed the murder of Sarah Payne in 2000, was neither helpful nor constructive. While the last three weeks have seen the media pre-occupied with the Madeline McCann abduction, it is vital to get the balance right. Stranger abductions are extremely rare in the UK and stranger abductions where the child is killed have remained statistically static since about 1970, at between five and seven a year.

So where does the police investigation go from here? I know that the British police have been providing specialist help, for example with family liaison and specific intelligence of expatriates now living in the Algarve as well as offender profilers. I have my reservations about offender profiles as the motivation of an offender varies. In cases like this, there are three elements that are vital and motivation is for me the last and least important.

Firstly, access. How did the offender(s) gain access to the apartment? How did the offender(s) get away after the abduction? How did the offender(s) know about Madeleine?

Secondly opportunity. How did the offender(s) know that Madeleine would be alone in the apartment? How did the offender(s) know they would not walk into an apartment full of adults? And how did the offender(s) know they would have time to get away from the scene before the alarm was raised?

Thirdly, motivation. Why was Madeleine taken and not the other two children? And what was Madeleine taken for?

These are just some of the elements of access and opportunity which need to be focused upon before the motivation of the offender is considered. There are other contributing factors as well, such as formal and informal controls. Formal controls being, CCTV (of which there is none) and the police (one officer responsible for the area of Praia da Luz) and informal controls being the public (possibly many).

Given that the abduction of a three year old child is so rare, it cannot be expected that the Portuguese police have the necessary knowledge and skills to handle such an investigation. So they should ask for help, in the same way that a British police force would have an outside force conduct a review. Such a review is not about apportioning blame or criticising, but about pooling the expertise that exists around the world. To pull together every investigative technique, along with the minds of the best detectives to find out who has abducted Madeleine and where she is, before the trail goes too cold.