but what if there is a down turn?  the economy slows.  people start to save money,  that is they don't spend money.  so then it does cause a spike in the economy.  in the north the economy slows down every winter.  the ground is too frozen to dig.  and many find it is too cold to work outside.  say a major snowstorm hits,  taking moterists by surprise.  lots of fender benders means more work for auto repair shops.  they might even hire those who usually do seasonal work.