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| | | From: sapper814 (Original Message) | Sent: 1/16/2004 4:26 AM |
The HUI and most of the shares peaked on Dec 2-3 for this run up. Since they have gone sideways and down, even as metal continued up. This is exactly what happened last Feb-Mar before the HUI returned to the 200 dma. There were some bounces along the way, and there is no guarantee the HUI will get back to the 200 dma. It got to the 100 dma today and that may turn out to be a good entry point. We will know in hindsight about 4 weeks from now. In the meantime, here are some candidates to play with. The list contains the symbol, close on Dec 2-3 (which is new target) and the % change since then, based on today's close. The last prices are today's close (and low) for reference as a possible entry points. No particular order. BGO 4.20 -25.7% 3.12 (2.98) CBJ 3.65 -26.0% 2.70 (2.59) CDE 5.60 + 4.1% 5.83 (5.58) Silver has allowed new highs since Dec 3. DROOY 2.85 +23% 3.51 (3.26) Due to Rand action EGO 3.60 -21.7% 2.82 (2.60) GSS 8.30 -26.8% 5.50 (5.05) SMXMF 1.21 -34% .80 (.67) HUI 256.84 -15% 219 (214) SWC 9.45 -1.3% 9.33 (9.00) I am looking for shares which move more than the HUI each direction. I watch CDE for the silver (although HL -10% or PAAS +5.3% may be better???). DROOY or GFI for the Rand - if you wish to go there. SWC for the platinum - need to keep an eye on it. These will keep me busy, unless a good reason can be provided for something else??? One thing I look at is relatively low share price to allow more shares and they tend to get jerked around a little more sharply than the big boys. Depending upon what happens in the morning, I may begin playing with a 1/3 position, just to get my toes in the water. I can add more when the direction becomes more clear. After I get my new position, I may let some of it go at a 10% gain, but we play it by ear at that point. Thats my story and I'm stickin to it.  |
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Well, lets see if Sinclair is right. He suggests there may be a blow off of the metals into next week, that if 323 can be taken down, it will start tripping some stops? If so, I am ready to began scooping up the rest of my choices at that time. I am looking at more GSS, BGO (to replace some I sold today), more SMXMF and perhaps another gold - to be determined (maybe Drooy or another African. If Silver will pull back, I will go with HL at this point or perhaps PAAS - I do not like the looks of what CDE is planning and will avoid them for now (let the rest go today also - this means it is headed to the moon  ). I would also like more palladium, either PAL or SWC, but both are too high for me here (but they have outperformed everything since Dec. Bubbles - your chart going back to May is meaningless. Do the same chart, but start Dec 2003. That is when Gold last peaked. Gold will be down but the silver and palladium will be up. At this time, after the next pull back of the metal, I expect the shares to again begin out performing the metal - especially the juniors. But then, I could be wrong. |
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| | | From: bluesky | Sent: 4/1/2004 9:45 PM |
March 31 2003 is the continuation of the april 30 1971 chart........
November 30 2003 was only a high point for gold....I know you call it dec 3 2003.......
This chart applies to the SPX, gold, oil, natural gas etc........some of these little piss ass gold shares may be high in price and going higher.......but....are they a bunch of SNG,s capable of dropping in a day to the 30% line ?????
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| This message has been deleted due to termination of membership. |
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| This message has been deleted due to termination of membership. |
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Well, even if you are not good, it helps to be lucky. I retrieved the CDE I dumped last night (against my better judgement) and also grabbed a few shares of HL. I will probably try to get rid of the CDE again as soon as possible - maybe even yet today. I still haven't made up my mind on the BGO, or other gold shares - The assault on 423 (yeah, I meant 423, not 323 above) came hard and fast this morning, and I don't think the winner has been declared yet, but for the short term, my guess is the guys with the most money (the banks and shorts) will win the first round. I am counting on them driving the price of gold back toward 400 next week and then I will back up my truck. I think the fight for 430 is just about over - they will win this round, but will lose the battle very shortly. If I am wrong, I guess I will just have to play catch up - nothing new there. |
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near $400? i suspect not!!! who knows eh? added a few last week ... MAE, LEG, GIT ... canadain stuff ... nothing good happened. |
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PLAY PAAS! VERY RADICAL! VERY LIQUID! VERY VERY VOLITILE! Nice PnF base too! |
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Well, I backed up my truck this morning. Now, I am not sure if I can get over the speed bumps to get out of Vodka's trailer park.  Replaced my CDE again (just couldn't resist). Got more HL and some BGO. Still waiting for GSS, but will add more before the day is out. (and it just filled as I type). Still got a couple more that haven't quite dropped to where I want them, but the day is still young. If they don't fall more, I guess I will have to buy them on the way up. Have a deep line for more SMXMF, but probably won't get that one. Got PMU and am still waiting on some NXG. I will probably replace the mutual funds I sold on the 2nd of April also. Don't know if I fully commit, or still wait for a better price in the next few days. ??? Yes, Sinclair appears to have hit this one on the nose - I admit last week, I was struggling with my patience, but I was able to hold off. Bubbles, I even picked up a few shares of your dear old Yamana a few minutes back. History may prove that we were still a bit early, but at this point, I think the upside risk of not being in is greater than the downside of being in too soon. But then, I could be wrong. |
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| | | From: bluesky | Sent: 4/13/2004 3:54 PM |
I think it all depends on the price of the American dollar in the coming months........
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Ok, I'll bite, at the risk of asking something I may regret. So where do YOU think the US dollar is going in the next few months?? Understand that in the past, the movement of the metals was linked to the dollar, but during the past few months, they have become decoupled. The metal is moving on its own - as evidenced by its value against the Euro. Why haven't you posted your chart lately - you know the one that says Gold is fixed to the Euro at ? uh, was it 330? eh?? Gold still hasn't tested the 200 dma. But it may not, either. Lets see if it can close and hold a price below 400 $$. Gonna be interesting. So if the Dollar is going into the crapper, (and it is) a prudent investor will hold something that will retain value, independant of the dollar. I don't think that would be Tech stocks at 30+ pe, irrespective of what the powers that be would like us to believe. I may live in the US, but I do not have to like what is happening, and I don't have to put my head in the sand and pretend it is not happening. But then, I could be wrong - I really haven't heard you coming up with much better alternatives here lately. Do you suggest paper cash in a mason jar buried in the back yard?? I just may happen to have a little of that also jfyi. |
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| | | From: bluesky | Sent: 4/13/2004 5:27 PM |
EURO mean price of 2% a year should be E332......since Jan 1 1999 Bottom of collar at 1% a year is E317 reached Top of collar at 3% per year is E350 reached So now the euro is back to hanging around the mean.2%......of E332 |
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Damn, Guess I was a wee bit early? eh?? Too soon yet to say I was flat out wrong, but that is also a possibility.  Kind of like a kid in a candy store. I should have left my deep lines as they were yesterday, the metal eventually found its way down to their original depth and then some..  I may still get my SMXMF at my price yet, otherwise, I am about stocked up - and still things I would like to buy. I thought the palladium, PAL and SWC had run off and left me behind, but I see today they are coming back. Bluey, as normal, you did not answer the question - Where do YOU see the dollar in 6 - 12 months?? Right now, we are damned if we do and damned if we don't. If rates go up to support the dollar, the economy will tank. If rates stay down, foreigners will bail on the dollar and it will tank (forcing rates up). The only secure place for long term money to go is to the metals. But that is just my opinion. |
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